AIG's Pre GFC Bubble vs. Gold. Interesting similarity.

Not that this is necessarily meaningful, but I find the characteristics of these assets rather strikingly similar. While I certainly would not trade off this alone, it kind of cements my view that Gold is potentially due to for a huge selloff here, which is a very contrarian take in today's market environment.

The charts read extremely similarly...

• peak exuberance hits then bursts to a low that is half way down the increase since the start of the bubble. For AIG, this was the dotcom bubble, and for Gold, it was the commodities exuberance from 2000-2011.
  
• After initial burst, market stabilizes and the asset recovers, but is a shell of what it was during the bubble era. It rises, bouncing off a new neckline back and forth over the next 7-8 years with smaller waves in each bounce.
  
• At the end of 8 years, the narrowing bounces hit the neckline, and sell off likey in tandem with some variety of crisis).
  
• The crisis breaks the neckline, and the bear market resumes for the asset, forcing technical traders to realize that the previous 7-8 years were a very long bear flag bouncing off a neckline.
  

And for whatever it's worth, I'm not saying this is a high probability scenario that Gold breaks the neckline, and I certainly don't think it's going to zero. But I think there is a much higher risk of a big selloff in gold than the market realizes.