I copied the fractal of the 2011 bubble and roughly scaled the speed to match our bubble. It would put a bottom in January 2020.
I was thinking. Why would we bottom earlier than the 2014 bear market? Wouldn't it be more logic that the cycles take longer now? More money is involved. The 2011 bear market took half a year, The 2014 bear market took roughly a year, so may be this bear market could take over 2+ years.. Who knows..
2011
2018
Commentaire
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Rough guess on how this could play out back to ATH.. may be around 2023
The fundamentals are 100% different than the distance past.
CivilisedWolf
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@Roeks, I believe fundamentals don't influence the technical picture
Roeks
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@VincentBoudewijn, So if BTC gets banned tomorrow world wide or LN makes major breakthrough next week the technical picture will remain in tact. If you say so then it is correct.
CivilisedWolf
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@Roeks, I think the fundamentals of btc are strong and have been since its existence. I don't question. But what BTC went through now is a bubble, we don't get away with it just because the fundamentals are good. Bubbles have the nature of correcting between 80-90% and I think this will not be an exception this time..
Roeks
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@VincentBoudewijn, Thanks
WazzaWill
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My only comment would be that the 2011 bull move was much larger in terms of % increase over the same time frame, hence a larger/longer correction was required. It's only speculative but time will tell.
IkemenJ
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Funny, I was just going over the chart today and thinking how much more like the 2011 crash this has looked like so far. Let's see if we get a quick retest of 6k.