In crypto just like in any other market it is very difficult to buy exactly at the bottom, which would enable us extracting the biggest profits possible in a trend reversal. Less than 1% of people in these markets can achieve this feat.
It is a question that has much connection with the functioning of the human mind and especially the less experienced traders have many difficulties in having a psychological control over their operations.
I'll leave you in related ideas, 2 long-term reviews that leave good expectations of being very close to the bottom before the next bull run, you can check by clicking on these analyzes to better understand what information is extracted from the charts.
Returning to talk about this post...
The human brain is very complex and even if you have a perspective that we are very close to the bottom, probably your mind will "cheat" you and try to make you buy below, always! With each fall in price, our mind tends to block our previous idea and make us wait for a new fall, where we would buy with better price. But at some point the price will stop falling, the trend will reverse and you will continue "sucking finger" and wailing for not having bought where you should. Then when you regain confidence and your mind lets you buy, the price will probably be far from the best purchase you could have made.
The point now is to play against your mind and make it work in your favor, changing that concept of wanting to buy at the lowest possible value, rather making staggered purchases that will allow you to have a much more adequate average price than any purchase in an attempt to hit a real bottom. In addition your mind will lessen the pressure on such an important operation as your buy orders are being reached your mind is becoming more relieved by being partially positioned! Of course, it is necessary to know how to identify graphically where a possible reversal is beginning, it is no use having psychological control and buying at a random point of the chart, but in this post I am only addressing the psychological part (You can see graphical analysis in related ideas).
In the financial market there is a well-known strategy, the dollar-cost averaging (DCA), and is using that + 2 other strategies that we will be able to carry out a successful "buying the bottom" operation in a reversal zone.
This is an introductory/psychology focused post and the next one with the technical details to buy bitcoin looking to long-term will be done when this post reaches 100 likes.
I am counting on your help to reach this mark and then I will bring an incredible post with a DCA allied with two other strategies that will allow us to buy bitcoin at an incredible price thinking in the long run.
This is an incredibly misleading post.
First of all, what basis do you have on those three lines? Fib I'm guessing?
So you're assuming that this bottom will be exactly like the last two. History rhymes but doesn't always repeat.
Secondly, this is 2019 with futures. That alone will change how bottoms are formed, volumes, how long they take, etc.
Third, if you use fibs then you probably know at least basic Elliott Theory. In the first subwave of Bitcoin's history, it retraced over 93% for the 2nd corrective subwave.
If you believe in Elliott theory, then Bitcoin has completed a full 5 wave structure upwards with the completion being the $20,000 ATH. Next comes the possible ABC correction, or the 2nd full wave downwards of the entire current structure. Considering the early subwave 2 retraced upwards of 94%, I suspect this 2nd wave down will be more violent. Wave 2 can retrace 99% of wave 1. So if we look at the 5 subwaves up as a first wave upwards, the 2nd wave should in theory retrace as much as, or worse than the worst retracement so far. That means $2,400 will only be a pit stop on our way down to the REAL bottom.
Traders that don't do their research are the only ones who will second guess their primary buy targets. Mine ultimately lie at around $350-$950. Once this range is achieved I will begin to DCA. No sooner than a 1K Bitcoin will I be purchasing any large amounts.
This is pure hopium at best. I understand psychology a lot better than most people and I can tell you right now there is no psychological reason for this to hold, especially considering what happened once we breached the bear pennant on a fakeout.
You are playing with fire telling people to buy in this area when the bear pennant alone tells us we have more pain coming.
ReallyMe
⋅
You could simply put the question in another way:
Is it possible to predict the future?
The answer is "No". And that's all there is to it.
Stop fooling people.
ThumbSkin
⋅
This post needs more likes.
MaksPorfirev
⋅
good job
LiuTrader
⋅
If you can, please help me also sharing this idea with your friends! More views = + Likes = Next detailed post with DCA+2 strategies.
demoxbt
⋅
Love your charts! But I don't see a lot of charts on TNB and would like to know your thoughts ty ty!
First of all, what basis do you have on those three lines? Fib I'm guessing?
So you're assuming that this bottom will be exactly like the last two. History rhymes but doesn't always repeat.
Secondly, this is 2019 with futures. That alone will change how bottoms are formed, volumes, how long they take, etc.
Third, if you use fibs then you probably know at least basic Elliott Theory. In the first subwave of Bitcoin's history, it retraced over 93% for the 2nd corrective subwave.
If you believe in Elliott theory, then Bitcoin has completed a full 5 wave structure upwards with the completion being the $20,000 ATH. Next comes the possible ABC correction, or the 2nd full wave downwards of the entire current structure. Considering the early subwave 2 retraced upwards of 94%, I suspect this 2nd wave down will be more violent. Wave 2 can retrace 99% of wave 1. So if we look at the 5 subwaves up as a first wave upwards, the 2nd wave should in theory retrace as much as, or worse than the worst retracement so far. That means $2,400 will only be a pit stop on our way down to the REAL bottom.
Traders that don't do their research are the only ones who will second guess their primary buy targets. Mine ultimately lie at around $350-$950. Once this range is achieved I will begin to DCA. No sooner than a 1K Bitcoin will I be purchasing any large amounts.
This is pure hopium at best. I understand psychology a lot better than most people and I can tell you right now there is no psychological reason for this to hold, especially considering what happened once we breached the bear pennant on a fakeout.
You are playing with fire telling people to buy in this area when the bear pennant alone tells us we have more pain coming.