This idea is a continuation of the same chart I published at the recent 60k top.
BTC has broken down from a longterm rising wedge and daily candle closed outside it. I expect a retest of the wedge at around 37k to 38k. Then a black swan event like march 2020, bottoming around mid July at around 11k on the trendline starting from the march 2020 bottom parallel to the logarithmic curves.
Why such a bearish view?
Crypto is fundamentally volatile, a fact traders forgets. With the amazing gains must come amazing drops.
Price action broke down from a long term rising wedge, barring a fakeout and regaining the wedge, price should drop significantly. 11k is the first price touch of wedge support which usually is the target of a rising wedge. There are many inefficiencies and CME gaps that must be filled and the 11k target will fulfill that.
The 9.6k gap and other below it are filled internally by the CME, and I have shown it in previous ideas.
the more extreme target of the wedge is the bottom and first touch of the wedge support at 3.8k. 10k is very strong support and I don't think price can go below it.
Finally the BTC's monthly RSI has bottomed at 43% twice before. Currently the RSI is at 57%. On September 2018, Monthly RSI was at 57%, subsequently BTC bottomed on December 2018 with an RSI of 43%, the drop was 63%. Similarly a drop from 32K to 11k is around 63% and The RSI will as in 2018 go from 57% to 43%.
your trend line game looks strong man. even though the TA clearly points to such a drop, I reckon this is only possible if it is fuelled by massive macroeconomic events. on its now, I don''t see BTC suddenly dropping that much one fine day
MMBTtrader
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nice one
well done bro
oktaymar
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I was just thinking the very same.
The_Pineapple
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Rejected.
great07
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great07
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hello
works2020
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nice analysis, thank you for sharing and for bringing me up to speed on previous posts to this one? I responded to one you made awhile back and didn't see these.
I agree there's more downside, not just the technical analysis and patterns like the head and shoulder. Agree also with what you wrote, "Crypto is fundamentally volatile, a fact traders forgets. With the amazing gains must come amazing drops." isn't this the truth :-)
James_mesut
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love the tools you use, keep up the great work
ll2coo2lj
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agree with bearish view for btc. going to 10k late july. too many traders forget that in order to start a new cycle we must first end this cycle with 10k price. people should look at it from the positive view of being able to buy in cheaper for massive gains in the near future.