We have a new downtrend signal in this timeframe, which so far has captured the moves since Bitcoin topped really accurately. We have ridden the move up from the April lows and sold at 9816.7. I now aim to enter shorts on retracement, which may come in the next few days, maybe grinding until the Consensus event, to then collapse rapidly. What we can't be sure of is how far price will go, since apparently strong long term buyers have been accumulating Bitcoin on dips close to 6k. I think it's likely that these buyers get tested next, as we have already tested the strong sellers that lurked in the 9900-11000 range and they are in control currently.
Sentiment got one sided, before topping, as most traders still active in crypto were in profit and happy, and many recovered their losses from before and regained confidence. I don't think it's likely to go any higher, but it could also break above the resistance zone, in which case this short idea would be invalidated. Unless we go above 9860 again, price will most likely trend down from here onwards, and bottom as per the downtrend signal implications.
Very interestingly, this could lead to Bitcoin's ultimate bottom of the bear market, to then rebound and hold in the same 6-11k region for longer before breaking out, upwards by May or June 2019. This gives long term buyers a long time to accumulate positions at low prices, and short futures to hedge rallies, while building billionaire positions in the OTC market, holding coins securely, off exchange. Let's see how it evolves, for now, we are in cash from 9816.7 and seeking to enter shorts with a rather tight 'stop' -note I'm not using stops to avoid telling my broker where they should make price spike to, to f### me.-
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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On request, someone asked me for a long term forecast:
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I'm short. Risking 1% if stopped.
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Trade fermée manuellement
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Covered short for now, will wait in cash...my aim is buying the bottom with all my remaining cash position, but I don't want to risk losing short profits. Cash won't make me lose money, if we retrace temporarily here, at best, we retest resistance higher, then fall again. I don't think this is THE bottom in BTC. Too many bulls still, so, being in cash will pay off. Made an extra profit of 3.6% with the short, while being in cash from 9816.7. Was long from 7060 roughly, up to 9816.7 before.
@IvanLabrie Hello! Nice forecast as usual. Do you have any thoughts on ZECBTC/ZECUSD?? It was in a downtrend for some time, and i was expecting things to go sideways for a while, but during these last 2-3 days we had a huge upside backed by big volume. Any thoughts on that?
IvanLabrie
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@DomarkasM, hi! Thanks for the kind words.
About ZEC, it is a lot less liquid and easy for anyone sufficfffffffiently capitalizaed to bully traders in it, up or down...I don't trade it now. Not for now.
Cheers!
DomarkasM
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@IvanLabrie, My strategy for ZEC was always to buy and hold, since price action is choppy. Never felt comfortable using margin on ZEC. Thanks for answering.
IvanLabrie
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@DomarkasM, yes, mine too. I was positioned in spot during periods of bullish trends but now with BTC in a bear market I don't touch alts. It might be less profitable but it surely is less stressful and easier for me to catch all main swings correctly.