Bitcoin has enjoyed its status and name recognition but hasn't received much-needed updates to resolve problems with its fundamentals. It's my belief that sooner rather than later it'll be displaced by one or hopefully several other better-qualified alternatives.
If we look at the chart, in Oct the weekly and monthly EMAs crossed twice & each time the price touched the monthly EMA a strong rebound ensued. However, it's undeniable that bitcoin has been overextended. I do believe that a very likely scenario is that three corrective waves will be completed. This will also form a head & shoulder trend reversal for BTCUSD. The danger zone would be between 15k and 17k.
Btw, the indicators haven't given a buy signal for a while, only sells. But of course any clear head can understand why. I think this is a quite likely scenario, but this market is very uncertain. There's a lot of information asymmetry that retail investors have to deal with. It's important to manage risks & deleverage as the price goes up. If and only if BTC has a period of consolidation can be we confident in levering up again.
Just noticed that it did follow this old chart quite well. I do think a bounce back to ~14.2k as shown here is likely today or tomorrow. Sell opportunity, perhaps.
Highly agree..I have very similar thoughts .. some interesting pump in twitter first with CME news around 6K tok it to 8K then 10k pump ATH followed by CBOE Wall St pump 10k to 20k.. now what ? denial ? back to normal ? I cant see the previous huge buy volumes
elshanti
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@elshanti, ops and I forgot the 2X fork pump where everbody dumped the alts to get free 2x forked bitcoins when the price was 5k..
@DrJLT, i thought i'd go the other way most likely if segwit 2x or a seemingly unlikely bcu fork got the block size and transactions moving in the right direction. Not that I'm too fussed. I am only hodling bitcoin gold at the moment plus I am speculating on the chain split tokens. Been out of btc and bch for a while now ;-)
DrJLT
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@qdoc, I think this is just another bs scam, just like bitcoin diamond, bitcoinX, bitcoin hot... I can also make one (better premine some first, like from today)
Doc-al-Citadel
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@DrJLT, yes doc I know that's the conventional view. I study scripting. I believe the whole of the cryptoverse to be scripted and as such I think a new btc is about to rise like a 'phoenix'. Could be wrong of course ;-) But I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Let's see!!! ps yes I'm thinking about btcqdoc, nice ring don't u think ;-)
DrJLT
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@qdoc, may be interesting to buy some in the future after the initial selloff on the cheap. like picking up bch at 200 or btg at 100.