It will probably make a false move on the downside and then we will see a big impulse wave up! If sentiment is to negative, it could accelerate down! If it does go up, it's only short term, after that it will most likely continue down after reaching it's target!
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One last drop probably
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Here comes the last drop to 9700/9650
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Almost there, first ones are in
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2 out of 3 things came true, it would make a false move dropping it (even thought it was 200 points more than i thought), that it would make a big and fast move up towards 9400 (it got stuck at 8900) and that it would drop further again. That it did. But ofcourse the strategy did not work out as i hoped.
Now it has made a small H&S
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Even a bear like me, is amazed about this drop. Never thought it would be this bad, no buying at all. No spoofy even. Anyway, people are getting a reality check now, how trading in reality is. or now, another decending wedge where it dropped out of, but no power this time to push it back in
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This spike was what i expected earlier today :). I have shorted it again just now. I think this is mostly short covering and therefore only temporarily
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2 options now, This H&S is gonna fail and we will see another spike up. Or i am right, we are going down again!
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To it's the same situation as the previous update. I mentioned before that i think this impulse wave was mostly short covering and therefore nothing has changed with the negative sentiment. If this H&S fails and we see another big upwave, than my theory is wrong for the short term
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Looks like it's going up, but volume is low so i am not yet convinced
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So far it's succeding, if it gets above the red area, expect it to go to the next at 9500
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It should drop to max 8800 no, even better if it bounces up from 9100
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The 2 red areas have doen there work clearly, its making a triangle now, wich could break upwards, but I think it Will drop towards the 8800. From that area I think it will take out the 9500 and go towards the 10K
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Trying to push through the 9400, but i dont think they will make it. A drop towards the 8800 is most likely to happen now. From there i think it will go up again, don't think the recovery upwave is over yet
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I am shorting it now at 9380 with a stop just above 9500
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Here you can see some trading channels wich BTC makes many times. These are very tradable if you want to make short rides. On the left you can see a failed H&S, wich i have mentioned many times before, that IF it fails you see a fast counter move up. You dont want to be short when it happens. Therefore it's better to wait for confirmation or use a very short stop when you see it goes the wrong way. In this example you can even see a fals break of the neckline. So always fingers on the trigger. The 9450 is a clear resistance in combination that it fell out of the small upwards channel, wich it has tested a few times now as a resistance. Chances are 80% it will drop from here. If it stops at 9200/9100 or drop towards the 9800 is guessing ofcourse. Better to look for some sort of reversal on the 1 min chart
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If my guess is right, i saw some wash trading at 9400, than it should mean it will probably go down no. Even though they try to push it through the 9400. I always am suspicious when i see fast buys of of round numbers of 5,10,20 and up getting bought against a big sell wall. Lets see if i am right. Fingers on the trigger because it close to a breakout
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I have added a few at 9470, stop around 9550
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I have closed the second half at 9320
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This is a scenario i think is very possible to happen. Don't star to blindly to it, but it's very realistic. I think the final upswing will make a flase breakout to the upside, as you can see in the green area's in the first to on the ledr. Because it has not made one NOW, i dont think this the end of the upswing. And i give it 20% chance that it will make big moves in weekends.
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This is where my stop is now for the remaining part
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I am out
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Those were 2 nice trades, both about 150 points. Now i am trying to short it again around this green area
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If it does not reach it, i will probably short it if it drops below the low of a few in ago
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Here you can see the 1 min chart of LTC, a certain strategy i use for short small trades. Both green area's show similar picture. The think black line is marked as a low. If after a new high it drops below that black line, that's a sign it is (could be) weakening. Than i wait until it gets close to that red line to short it. Stop is than around that previous high. The first green area it didn't work, this time it is. It has to drop towards the 152/144 for me to close it. Now it is running in my direction, for now i am lowering my stop to minimize loss and/or guarantee a certain profit. Depends on your strategie and risk. I sometimes post some of my short/small trades, but i normally i wont because a fast reaction is needed sometimes. This is just to give you some insight in my trading strategy
hey I wanted to thank you for your analysis on the bear market trend in the stock market ...I was able to move my positions to cash and avoid this nasty fall the last couple days. Thanks again!!
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@CE_Albanese, your welcome, so far it is an perfect call, today was a bloody day. I will probably close most of my short positions on monday, i think a small bulltrap move will occur on monday/tuesday to continue to drop the rest of the week. Dax has given real confirmation that it will drop at least a few % more coming weeks.
What about the few that you added at 9470? Do you still have them now that we are at around 9200?
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@knutselwout I posted when i closed those, to make the average trade with less risk
2 hours ago Comment: I have closed the second half at 9320
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Do you think u can short it until 8800? or 9000?
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@Kush-TRADE, That's difficult to say upfront. My strategy is flexible, i have a target but i dont always stick to it when i see signals i can't ignore. If you have less experience, the best way is to use a stop and target and WHEN it goes into your direction move your stop with you. My target is 8800 (a little above ofcourse) but 9100 is a clear support so don't ignore it.
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Thanks for the updates, keep on your great work. I like your passion and always wait for your news