My scenario will celebrate the day after tomorrow its 6 months of existence. It has been the subject of 16 publications, all of which have been verified to date.
To believe today that we have already entered a real bullrun would be to deny my scenario and these 16 "ideas" published (*).
(*) To be exact, there are 32 publications, because for each idea published in English, I published the same in French.
It is difficult not to FOMO on these "beautiful green" of April 2019, even for a regular. The actors of the cryptos are "greedy" and euphoric on the social networks, which is obviously very communicative and tempting.
But I must act frankly with those who follow me: I sold all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 5300.
And with a long reflection, where I re-husked, and re-checked all my scenario point by point, indicator by indicator, here is a reminder of what I had planned for 2019, chronologically:
- A 1st Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k mid-December 2018, signing the end of the bearish retracement. - An oscillating horizontal range 3000 ~ 6000 $ from mid-December 2018 to (approximately) September 2019. - Range which therefore includes one or two Bull Trap between 5000 ~ 6000 $ between April and August 2019. - A 2nd Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k in the summer of 2019, marking the end of the oscillatory horizontal range. - A bullish impulse towards the month of September 2019 pushing the price above $ 6,000. - An horizontal consolidation range around ~ $ 7000 from (approximately) October 2019 to February 2020. - Entry into the real Bullrun in March 2020 (average impulse like 2016). - Bullrun euphoric like 2017 from March 2021 (strong impulse).
The problem is that we would be today at the peak of a Bull Trap with the risk now of re-dropping to ~ $ 3k.
Commentaire
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The Bitcoin story can not of course be exactly repeated, but human psychology does not change and it is reflected in patterns and trends. However, as in 2015, we had a Dip very similar to -84% (see my previous demonstrations, including timings). Like 2015, Bitcoin has just been pulled out of its Bearish Trendline by an isosceles triangle ... and see what happened then at the breakout of this triangle: a bull trap!
This risk seems to me quite consistent: while we have just come out of this historic bearish line, how can we already make a point on this burst of traumatic bubble and leave directly on a Bullrun, as if nothing had happened?
It seems premature to clear the slate and play goldfish (although I had to force myself to click this button "Sell"). It takes time for confidence to return and for a new rise to be sufficiently sustained. I now see the same 5 stages as in 2015: Bull Trap then Bear Trap, then Bullish Pulse, then Consolidation and finally Bullrun.
ATTENTION: Invest only what you are willing to lose and don't blindly listen to any "prophet".
Commentaire
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You will also find as a reminder in this old publication, a target of the triangle that stopped at "only" $ 5000:
And in this same idea, my comment of January 28th that put forward this risk of a Bull Trap coming, after the breakout of the isosceles triangle, based on the study of 2015:
Commentaire
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More recently, note that in my previous idea, with its Future contracts on Bitcoin, the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOE) still leaves the floor to the Bears of Finance until June 2019:
Commentaire
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My publication on the crossing of MM 9 and 20 also shows this risk of Bull Trap:
(read his update at the moment by clicking below)
Transaction en cours
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My technical analyzes predict a Bull Trap whose top will be between 5400 and 6200 $.
A possible ascending triangle of pump continuation, in course of formation, could make it possible to validate this possibility to reach the ~$ 6k.
Nevertheless, the horizontal line of this triangle is far from being well defined despite the fact that we have just had a third rejection at $ 5,380.
Also, to validate this pattern and play a "long" calculated on the amplitude of this possible triangle, it is necessary to watch closely a dump with rebound validating a 3rd low point in the zone that I surrounded below:
While waiting for this possible confirmation signal this end of the month, nothing says that we are not on the contrary in the process of forming a Double Top bearish immediately validating the Bull Trap.
Those who already claim to see a bullish triangle validated (and there are many) are only "prophets" who have one chance out of 3 to be right (pump / dump / horizontal range).
So, don't forget my usual DISCLAIMER : don't blindly listen to any "prophet".
Transaction en cours
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Bitcoin is always on a horizontal range as my technical analysis predicted.
Beyond that, it is interesting to note that my call to leave the crypto-market at the first $ 5,300 has already borne fruit on two levels: - on Bitcoin, the 2nd top was not higher than the 1st top, so there was nothing to gain to take the risk of HODL - on the Altcoins, many of them fall quite strongly (ADA, XLM ...) with every small drop of Bitcoin in its range!
Transaction en cours
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With this little pump @ $ 5,465, the ascending triangle now looks clean, with an exit target of $ 6,000. What is possible, on the timing side, this end of the month (with or without a low point at $ 5200 on the oblique support of the triangle):
Personally I don't take any risk, I stay in USD / USDT, because my longer-term analysis gives anyway a high risk of Bull Trap ($ 6k), which may be anticipated, even before being reached, by a large number of market-makers.
I have just published a new idea showing that RSI 14 to 60 is going in this case of an imminent Bull Trap (click below for more details):
Transaction en cours
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Target 6k $ of my ascending triangle validated to perfection:
Now let's move on to my scenario... Bull trap or not Bull Trap? :)
“I sold all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 5300. “
This has a great chance of being equivalent to:
“I bought all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 19,500”.
You could have been right. The price might have gone up another couple thousand to $21,000 and then you could have sold all again. But it didn’t. Just like now, the price could go down another couple thousand to $3,000 but will it?
This “I sold all” or “I bought all” business is not a good idea.
MaxHodler
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@BorisPoff, I buy, I sell, I re-buy, you know ^^
I'm so suspicious of bearish biases after a year of crash (sell the dip @ 3200 $ and believe that it will fall endlessly), as much as i'm wary of bullish biases after 1 year of bullrun (buy the top @ 19500 $ and believe that the trees go up to sky without retracement).
My publication is precisely to remember not to lower its vigilance, nothing is acquired, and beware of sheep behavior, as well as the comfortable self-suggestion that all is well / better.
However, apart from some good shots through obvious patterns (see my recent publication on the XLM falling wedge for example), I am unable like everyone to predict the exact top or the exact Dip.
Regarding the 2017 ATH: I sold my Bitcoin a first time with a gain of + 100% on what I thought was the ATH over $ 15000 ^_^°
but I felt the next day the bear trap and I bought everything at the same price.
Final sale to the exact 2nd bubble summit around $ 16000:
And it was already not so bad in a context of extreme euphoria.
But as much as I could not say that the ATH would be $ 19500 rather than $ 25000 (especially since there is manipulation, by nature unpredictable, as I explain in a previous publication), as much as I am today unable to say that I sold the exact Top of a Bull Trap at $ 5,300. Bitcoin may climb up to $ 5,800 before the dump I expect (my previous publications show that we can actually approach the $ 6000 on the current wave). But I do not want to risk it, I'm not gambling enough for that.
I am happy to have taken my profits on my $ 3500 > 5300 (increased earnings on some of my altcoins, XLM, ADA, BNB...). And that's the main thing.
If it rises higher, I find that the proportion gain / risk is not wise, according to my idea that we are always in a horizontal oscillatory range and not a bullrun.
BorisPoff
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@Cryptor07, trading small positions is a more sound idea than selling all.
Why should we focus on a potential drop. If it plays out like history, you will end up being just fine if you wait this out. This would be a great time to collect regardless a short upcoming 'crash' or not.
supremetrejdr
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@ErikKelder, And what if it doesn't play out like it did in the past?
MaxHodler
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@supremetrejdr, I have struggled too long against the obvious...
I am particularly ashamed of my first ideas almost a year ago that stank the perma-bull's blindness.
It was a psychological bias that pushed me to convince myself that human nature evolved between 2014 and 2018.
With actors in the crypto-market more mature, less "week-hands", less frightened by cryptos...
The famous "institutionals who will inject billions into cryptos" and we out faster than in 2014 the current crash... tingles!
The only thing I know reliably, and many times proven in my publications here, is that the bearish retracement of 2018 has already been as violent as in 2014, with an impressive similarity. And so it is more likely today to know also an horizontal range similar to 2015 (9 months), rather than restarting in bullrun after only 4 months of consolidation!
It is purely and simply a probability to my advantage thanks to an almost immutable crowd psychology.
Moreover, it is not "exactly" as in 2014, since I only see one Bull Trap instead of two in 2014 :)
I am inspired by a trend, a timing, an amplitude, a volatility and not exactly the course of the time which is unpredictable.
supremetrejdr
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@Cryptor07, I believe this macro trend line should be extended to the last high that we had and another huge drop will come bellow 3k to get rid of the last weak hands. The majority doesn't believe that BTC can break 200 weekly MA. It kinda reminds me of 6k situation. I believe we gonna hit low to mid 2k and capitulate there.
This has a great chance of being equivalent to:
“I bought all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 19,500”.
You could have been right. The price might have gone up another couple thousand to $21,000 and then you could have sold all again. But it didn’t. Just like now, the price could go down another couple thousand to $3,000 but will it?
This “I sold all” or “I bought all” business is not a good idea.