Everybody on tradingview and on youtube have seen the formation of the obvious symmetrical triangle, everyone is talking about this from days now. A magic triangle that will save us right ? BUT, permanent bulls and crypto oracle are missing something. The big deal is the triangle is forming from the FAIL breakout of the first ABCDE (Do you remember ? Yes, the triangle who should push us to new high in "NO FUCKING TIME", , en route to 100K, blabla). But the reality is in this case the symmetrical triangle is calling B wave of an ABC major cycle correction. And what's is going on after the B in a ABC ? Yes obviously a C wave.
So what the target behind this count ? Well the normal target of the wave C should be under 0$. Because i'm true BTC believer and crypto enthusiast in contrary of what most of people think, i have look for 3 strong support line that could potentially HOLD the market.
First one around 4K9 will be an agressive buy for me to play a decent rebound before a new dip.
3K and 1K1 are more strong support. And market should find a bottom on theses ones, but it's way too early to speak about this.
Some reliable indicators :
divergence on weekly : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
One day this monster monthly need to cross : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Weekly CMF look for a reverse cycle : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
We may bounce too 7k8 or 9k to finish the triangle but i would personally take any countertrend trade in this market. My short from 9K8 is doing well, so i'm just patiently waiting.
I'm not a financial advisor or a prophet i just draw you the most probable scenario. Do your own research and trade at your own risk !
All crash and correction end one day and i can say you when BTC will find a bottom it will be probably the best opportunity in your life of investor.
Have a nice week, Cheers !
Sorry for the 1 week without update but i had no time for myself. But above all there was nothing new to say.
As most often in a triangle, we are in a crash of volatility near the Apex. So we need to wait a breakout to confirm the trend.
For now bulls can't come back over the 50 weekly MA, for the first time in 4 years : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Don't like to compare different crash of market but this time it's very explicit so forgive me :
Best thing to do in this market is to wait the breakout with spike of volume. People in position now can hold them position with a stop loss over or under the break out (depend if you are bull or not).
By the way the target remain the same, as i explicated it over, symmetrical triangle in this type of ABC pattern breakdown most often.
As i expected (symmetrical triangle will save us blablabla) Wave B is nearly done with this breakdown of the triangle, more or less confirmed by volume.
You can see the resistances and supports i gave you many times still working : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
But i'm not here to gargle me.
So what's now ?
The price is finding a temporary support at the current price. He is supported by Andrew's pitchfork median and by the hope of a triple bottom (we are more or less at the same price than the 2 others times). BUT I DONT TRUST TRIPLE BOTTOM, and you should not. Really, i think triple bottom on daily chart reverse the trend maybe 15 or 20% of the time. This is a very weak pattern, even weaker than double. I'm not saying it can't support but it's highly unlikely.
So this short-term support could make us retry the breakdown of the triangle near 7K, and that would probably be the most bearish scenario if bulls can't reintegrate it. Because ALL the shorter who miss the dip and even the others one will take or reinforce short position at this level. This is a strong technical price to short the market without risk (you have just to put a stop loss few dollars over the precedent support line of the triangle).
My first target of 4k9 is ready, it will probably take some weeks (if the bulls have some power). Let the fun begin.
Have a nice day everyone.
And don't forget, at the end, BTC will survive. BTC always survive.
I would recommend no trade in this zone. If you are scalper then you may sell the top of the range and buy the bottom, but i don't find this very interesting. Wait for a breakout of the range to take a position. If we manage to break up then we will retest the break of the symmetrical triangle as i expected a week ago. If we breakdown then we are probably going to new low. In both case my targets remain the same, just be patient. Patience is the key in a crash market, it rewards real investor and professional traders and make speculators and novices leaves.
SO as i told in the previous one, i would not take any trade in the range i have pointed out. You can look buy yourself why now. So we breakdown the range and fall to the exact target of my precedent chart :
You can play it and see by yourself (If i remember well someone say me he will eat his dick if the price rebound from my C point after i have called for the exact top too, i'm looking for this guy). So i have closed it with target reached, and i'm enjoying my +40% leverage x3 as you all know. I hope a lot of people here have made some monster profit too with it. I always wish you the best.
So what's now ??? 5750 was the bottom ? I think there is less than 10% chance it was. But as expected it was a short-term bottom with already a +12% bounce (not bad for a little counter-trend trade, but i have don't take it, just liquidated my short position at the bottom). Of course i have an other short position since we breakdown the triangle and that's why i have made this chart some weeks ago.
So lets talk about the present chart with some methodic approach. I will go from monthly to hourly.
First : Monthly MACD will cross at the end of this month if we don't bounce really stronger in the coming days: https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Secondly : The weekly shows the continuation of a classic crash market : we make lower highs and lower lows, it's a simple rule but every trader and pseudo analyst should take care of this before propose any other type of TA. That could have helped all the moon-callers and perma-counter traders to avoid huge amount of losses ("This market is bull, the downtrend is broke, bla bla bla") : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
The candle of the previous week shows that after a strong downtrend, the bears needs some fuel and the market is undecided for the short-term.
Thirdly : On the daily chart you can see we have broke a MAJOR support, and he should now act as a super strong resistance :
But show some divergent signals for short-term :https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/5/555k5aq2.png
Lets talk about hourly now :
4 h chart : You can see the Andrew's pitchfork i gave you nearly one month ago is working incredibly well, that one of the reasons why i have not make so much updates, you could just have looked at it to identify resistances and supports : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
When we have breakdown the major range i have pointed out in last update we have formed a massive zone of resistance. The price can be rejected of this zone at pretty any point.
1h chart : This chart is the most bullish one. With a potential inverted H&S and a decent Elliot Wave count. You all know the 1h chart is the weaker chart in a trend, so don't take it too seriously, but it's something that can be played if you are trying to buy this market (with a stop loss just under 6000) : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
We are just under a resistance so wait for a better entry point. And understand that's it's NOT a reversal chart. Just a short-term potential view.
This bullish count could make us at best retest the triangle we broke down some days ago : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
I hope everyone is fine and much richer than before ! Don't forget to follow to be update and to put a like if you enjoy the work. I wish you an happy weak.
(As always i'm not financial advisors, i'm doing it for my personal trading and entertainment, etc...)
AGAIN it's just the 1H chart, and i post it only because some bulls are searching for an entry point. You need to be a confirmed trader with a nice risk management for this type of trade. The GLOBAL market remain bearish in all others time frames. I'll probably not personally take this trade (or with a mini % of my funds) because i prefer follow the trend (that's mean short the resistance in a bearmarket) it's how i survive when others trades die. But the risk/remain ratio is interesting so i post you it. Have a nice day everyone.
Again i'm not financial advisor, i'm doing it for my personal entertainment.
I have time today so i'm making some advice for intraday trading. Will have probably less time in the coming days.
However I will call this a deadcat bounce unless we weekly close over 7K4 :
For 4h perspective :
I'm looking for a 0.886 to confirm a potential bat pattern + We are still in a potential bearflag.
My first support is holding for now. It's an important one, if bears manage to break it again things could accelerate.
Neckline is at 6800-6850. Possible fake breakout to 6950. If the pattern is rejected, i anticipate the breakdown of our channel and the quick acceleration of the downtrend.
BULLS IT'S NOW OR NEVER !
However the multiple indicators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD, CMF, and fib WMA) are in pretty neutral to bullish case for once. The ALTS are losing momentum against BTC and that the first time since a long time of this bear market :
I don't think we are out of the bear market for now, but it's looking to early to me to short the market again, we could potential extended this correction to 7K8 or 8K2. For now the main thing i can say is Patience and HOLD your current position.
You can see we have get our pull back of the triangle with a little extension of the apex : http://www.forex-central.net/chart-patte...
Everything is fine, even if the extension normally imply a reduce of the final target, (the initial target was 0 so no problem for my supports levels here).
Now we just break out the 2 weeks range with two possible scenario : https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
If we can rebound on the current level we will confirm the breakout and try to establish a normal short squeeze (bears say thanks to all the idiot overleveradge gamblers who short a support which is not break yet) to 7K2. The other scenario is the current level (6650) fail to become a support and we are back in the range : remember after a fail breakout of a range, there is most of time a breakdown of it with could imply a target as low as 4900-4400 area.
Good luck everyone, and i hope you have enjoy some holidays ! Cheers.
I don't think it's a reversal sign, the rise is steady but the extension of the waves can't pass 1.23 (for now 1 is making resistance), that's just mean the initial sideway range have evolved in bear-flag.
An extension to 7050$ looks possible. The count will be invalidated if we can break strongly above 7200$ and maintain the level with a weekly close.
Guess who's is making more and more money ? You are probably too if you follow me since December !
Enjoy the rides guys. Target remain the same :).
A little thought for our ETH friends holders. But i'll not lie, i'm enjoying my profits and i have warned for free everyone :
Please show me your support for new charts ! Kill the likes and don't forget to follow my friends !
Could be the time we were waiting for. Don't forget a bearflag works only WHEN the bottom line BREAKDOWN.
Have fun everyone. Don't forget to show me support and ask me if you want some new chart ! Good training day !
I'm waiting some more signals for BTC.
Will keep you update.
However, I think the resistance area between 5500 and 6200 will be very strong. So after this pattern, we should see a last wave down. 1K1 remain possible.
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