Unless we erase last week's downside move, the trend is down for the next 10 weeks. Target is 6833, but might bottom higher (or lower). Watch the behavior here, since Bakkt and Binance.US did nothing for price, downside action is the next logical course of action. I flipped short after hedging spot holdings near 9687.5 today. We were long spot from 5300 to about 7000, and then back in a few times, until the most recent long entry near 9400. Initially we caught upside from the very bottom but ended up underperforming since we moved to ETH instead of holding 100% BTC, causing my trading signals group to underperform holding BTC spot for the first time in many years. This situation might reverse going forward, since I'm confident in the ability of the methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, and my experience in this market to help navigate the waves in crypto markets profitably. I did correctly identify the bearish trend in ETHBTC after it was confirmed and it has moved down since. It will continue to move lower, I wouldn't reccomend holding on to any altcoin, and at this point not even BTCUSD is safe for investors.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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Covered short @ 8265 from 9687.5 I'm long spot only, no leverage for now.
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BTCUSD's support at 8118 seems to be holding, if it doesn't fall towards 6700-6295 before Oct 1st, the monthly chart will be flashing a bullish signal, as per Tim West's monthly analysis. It would likely go back towards the long term trendline:
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Price action is still weak, I will wait for clear strength to manifest itself, it will take time before any serious buyer uses Bakkt, no reason for the market to go up from here, weekly trend still active, and there's both time and possible downside left...
Let's wait and see.
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I'm cautiously bullish here:
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Resistance between 8877 and 9448 might be tested next. Monthly gives bulls reassurance, since price didn't break down enough to be worrying, and biweekly remains positive as well. Daily made a new low but turned up, forming an outside bar, which is potentially a good start for a bullish move here. I'm long from 7966, after covering my hedge. I would see if we need to hedge again higher, but time will tell...
My clients will get the minute to minute updates, and positioning reccomendations first, only posting general updates here.
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Price action isn't too strong, some more downside is possible.
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Cyan guess is probably invalid by now.
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#BTCUSD broke above the downtrend mode here, a failure signal just triggered, it implies a rally to 10146 within 11 days if it holds up from here:
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Upside target was not met in time, so back down we go...weekly trend can run until December 1st. If we don't hit 6834 by then, we would have a weekly bearish failure, which would probably happen after price bottoms and accumulation starts once again.
I'm hedged from 8340 roughly, was back in the long from 7950 recently. So far, market remained sideways, so we could trade in and out a couple times to increase the BTC count, but there's no opportunity to take bigger risks than trying to maintain USD value intact until it's clear the sell pressure receded.
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The CME #Bitcoin futures chart predicts a fall towards 6534, with a stop @ 8310. It can reach this target by Oct 31st or sooner, and it might be the very bottom IF it comes to pass: Weekly shows 6706, as the target zone, with time until Dec 5th.
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This signal might fail on a move over 8355, I'm long spot here. Covered my hedge from 8340 near 8190.
Last: 8193.32
If prices break over last week's high this week, the bullish scenario would become more probable and could warrant taking a long position on margin with a tight stop.
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Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte
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Price bottomed near this forecast's target. Time expires for the initial signal identified here this week.
@IvanLabrie, Think we are still overdue a bounce to retest the triangle resistance, probably next week, but then continue lower. It's worrying how aggressive the first week of the sell off has been compared to the November 2018 breakdown, indicating we could well go lower than the target of the measured move. The sell-off is starting to resemble 2017 breakdown, which would be great:
IvanLabrie
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@dragononcrypto, it would really need to shake people's perception, all the people convinced it'll eventually go to 100k etc need to change their mind for a bottom to occur, probably.
IvanLabrie
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Best thing to do is to watch closely, but don't expect this move to end too quickly. 6449 acts as a magnet for price now, the closer it gets, the stronger the pull.
The accumulation was not enough at 6400 to restart a long term parabolic run, this was always something I saw as possible and worrying when we were moving away from 7000 following the April run up.
The worst case scenario was a really treacherous market that would go up but fail to break out and then come down just as sharply back to 6400 zone. I had anticipated this scenario because of the Time@mode logic implications.
In a strong trend, consolidations/re-accumulation takes just as long as the move before usually. It wasn't the case here. Bñ BTC rallied too soon
ultrapower
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Do you think it bottomed at 7700?
IvanLabrie
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@ultrapower, it's hard to say but possibly not yet. I'll wait some more and watch for more clues. I'm in cash.
Cash not a bad place to be right now. However, this will LIKELY be the last stint of downward pressure we will see in the Daily (24h) TF before we FINALLY reverse to SUSTAINED upward pressure by no later than October 6th or October 7th in my opinion.
yezu
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That potential reversal date from your original post is more-less aligned with MtGox submission deadline for rehabilitation plan... It maybe more than just a coincidence?
Great analysis - as always ;-)
IvanLabrie
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@yezu, it's a great thing to keep in mind, supply from Gox.