My scenario in force for more than 6 months (see Related Idea for example) had given the dip of December 15 to $ 3150, signing the end of the 2018 bearish retracement.
However, this same scenario saw in the immediate future a pump only up to $ 6500... however, we exceeded $ 8000
Why my scenario could not predict such amplitude / volatility ?
Simply because the current pump is based on... PANIC BUY generated by a FUD by nature unpredictable
Phase 1: Bitcoin's PANIC BUY to protect themself from the nth FUD launched on Tether / Bitfinex... all but well-founded Phase 2: SHORT SQUEEZE generated by this PANIC BUY... all but well-founded Phase 3: PANIC BUY "followers" who saw the Bitcoin price fly away... all but well-founded Phase 4: PANIC BUY now Altcoins by those who "missed the train" of Bitcoin and those who now find Bitcoin too expensive... all but well-founded
However, all the ingredients of the PANIC BUY which then gives rise to the PANIC SELL generalized (with renewed confidence in stable corners like Tether now that the FUD has fallen)
And the present idea shows that the parable of euphoria is identical to that of 2017 (similar inflection) as a new speculative bubble ready to burst: my idea of a Bull Trap target $ ~5k would still be valid ?
DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
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" The court’s order allows Bitfinex and Tether to continue their normal business activities. It also stipulates that the injunction will expire in 90 days and that the burden to seek any renewal from the court rests squarely on the shoulders of the New York Attorney General’s office, where it belongs." Source: bitfinex.com/posts/363
Translation: we had to panic sell our Bitcoin to buy Tether and we will panic sell our Tether for panic buy Bitcoin in 90 days ^^
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Wedge & Double Top ?
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Rising Wedge confirmed Double Top confirmed Downside Breakout confirmed
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The white Bullish Trendline has been bought back, certainly because it is very visible to trade... now we have to watch what will be the reaction to the encounter of this pump with the new red Bearish Trendline (tops less and less high) to know which of these two lines have the most strength:
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In progress: double rejection on my oblique bearish redline :
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Bearish redline crossed forcefully, so we could soon face the resistance of $ 8250 - to watch closely - on an ascending triangle with a continuation of the initial bullish movement, target up to $ 10k !!
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Here it is finally our breakout to $8300 on this ascending triangle! Personally on this long 100% BTC, I go back up my SL gradually:
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Rather than correcting the wedge at $ 8650 according to its amplitude of volatility, it's obvious that Bitcoin holds a very nice horizontal range a little more higher, 8700-8830 $, showing the determination of the bulls and the undoubted dominance of Bitcoin :
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Feel free to reward this analysis with a blue thumb and activate tracking if you want me to continue this regular monitoring of Bitcoin!
A beautiful week to all, Cryptor
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The red wick of this morning does not worry me, I was expecting it because of the little descending triangle in progress that prompted some profit taking under its horizontal $ 7,700.
But I don't hide you by cons that I'm puzzled since last night, with the double sub-$9000 rejection that seems to draw us a Rising Wedge.
It is now important to watch that the price of Bitcoin remains in the next few days in the white rectangle that I have drawn below.
Otherwise the price could be traced back to the low Risk Wedge (~ $ 8250), with the pronounced risk in a second time of a wedge breakout at $ 7000
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My fears were confirmed with the double failure at $ 8820 last night and the fall all night until the second $ 8500
The pattern that inspires me the most the current flag being a descending triangle, bull signals should not be too long if we don't want Bitcoin to finally agree with my Bull Trap scenario that here is updated:
This is not an invitation to sell but to increase your vigilance and tighten your stop loss / profit taking on the highly speculative current trend after the bear market of 2018.
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My pattern updated above proposed for this last day of May a dump at $ 8000 with a small rebound at $ 8,200, which has just been confirmed.
MY FEARS WERE CONFIRMED...then btc goes to 9100 while you show us a possible 5k drop :D. For me that 8500 was just a pure and normal correction for you every correction its a iminent drop to the abism of the bear market lol.
Your fractal has been shrunk to match. There-in lies the key.. The actual fractal could be bigger or smaller and you don't know. You are just matching it up, which is easy on the uptrend. Therefore it's still anyone's guess as to how big/small the fractal actually is.
MaxHodler
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@MrInvertigo, Well agree with you on the fact! And you can imagine that I did a lot of testing before retaining it...
But give it a try, you'll confirm one thing: yes, it can match with a peak at $ 10k or even more...
EXCEPT that it lengthens so much bear traps of 2017... THEN, there is no correction on this current pump!
If the pump continues in the same way, it would be unpublished in the history of Bitcoin... impossible? no... but statistically very improbable.
Starting from this observation, the only fractal that coincides is the one that I traced, until proven otherwise...
Try it please, I would like to be wrong (I am very bullish on the long term on Bitcoin... but not now)
If not at worst, it's the price that will invalidate this publication, but in this case please avoid saying that I'm ALREADY wrong ^^°
MrInvertigo
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Keep doing what you are doing. I appreciate the analysis. :)