I want to kind of clarify a few misconceptions on the difference between trading and gambling. The comments from my previous post, which are much appreciated, have led me to believe that many of you are gambling instead of trading. I want to clarify that EW and Fibb are not crystal balls, they are simply probable areas for trend reversals. I won't get into why it works as you can google why market sentiment drives market prices, and not news, and how it relates to EW and FIbb. Case in point, I have seen the same people that blamed China for the selloff, claim one week later the market is going to soar to new highs? Just think about this! Did I miss the twitter feed that China is opening the exchanges back up? No I heard just today they are closing more. And no offense, but how can you in one sentence blame a selloff on Chinese news, and a days later additional bad news comes out and your calling for a run to $6000? Am I missing something here? By any sound reasoning based on news, we shouldn't be going to new highs but new lows! Just something to ponder.
This is about whether you are a trader or a gambler. Traders have a plan and a strategy to work the plan, Gamblers just throw money in hoping to hit 7's. Traders adjust their strategy as the plan unfolds. Gamblers are praying this roll of the dice is it. Traders know when to get out of a trade. Gamblers are blaming the waitress for bumping into them. Are you a Trader or Gambler?
So how do I trade this particular setup. I'm not going to go over how we got to Leg B, as I covered that already, but what I do once I knew we were in leg B.
First I put the top chart on my big screen. I add my 2 HMA's that I have tweaked for this equity and time frame, and I monitor how the leg evolves. I'm expecting 5 waves up to B, and the 5th to end around $4200 as I posted 2 days ago. as you can see the pattern is playing out just as we would expect,so far so good. The third wave provide a perfect 5 wave fractal and when the candle went red and the faster HMA crossed through the Slower HMA, and the slower HMA went negative slope, I Sold (this is a trigger). I didn't just choose an arbitrary point between the A &B, I had a signal this was a good place to sell. Once we hit (4) the faster HMA crossed back through the slower HMA and we started trending up again. Ahhhhh HA! completion of the 4th wave. So I add a fib ext - 1.618 = $4209 less than 1% of our overall target range. NICE. Now I adjust every thing for my new target point (B) including my sell area (the red bar). If it goes as planed the correction should begin somewhere between $4106 and $4209+-, if the trend is still valid. Looks like we just hit the minimum level for a wave 5. So I'm watching at this point for the correction to begin and also looking for signs of strength, but I'm not seeing that, look at wave 5 vs wave 3 and 1. Much weaker, this is not a strong pattern but a weak one hardly bullish. So my strategy is still in play, but I must continue to monitor and adjust to the changes as the chart evolves.
Now this is just an overview of how I am trading. My trade is based on strategy and a plan to trade it. It's based on trends and pivot points, not pulling a number out of the air. This is why you must have a plan and a strategy to implement it. I think of all outcomes. What if's so to speak. If your not doing the same or similar, you are not trading, your not even playing poker, your buying a lottery ticket and hoping your numbers come up.
I appreciate and look forward to your comments. Have a blessed Night everyone!
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In fairness the big dip happened when I was editing the article. The week 5 level, is another positive sign!!
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Here is an update as we follow the chart and look for any signs of a trend change. so far still bearish as you can see from the lower chart. Nothing has signaled Bull. The RSI is still bearish.
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Interesting signal triggered. I also adjusted my trend line.
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I'm feeling more confident, but we can not get to comfortable, and we must realize there is a valid count that get's us to $4200 and not get scared into buying the final rally!
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Sorry posted in wrong spot. Update on trade. looking to maybe add a side trade to the upside but would rather see a break to the down. Either way the $2200 target is still a valid strategy!
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For you Margin guys that are gambling. This is an area that you must be careful shorting on margin!! Large players cannot see your stops, but they see the same charts. They know there are guys shorting on margins here. They also can approximate the stops limits for these. Low volume, low volatility is a perfect storm to squeeze you out! They need buyers to short, and there are none, but they know there are a crap load of stops out there. They will buy into the stops, spoof the market, and trigger a margin call domino effect which will trigger buy orders from you short margin players. The buy orders that were accumulated over a day or so, will be plenty of volume for them to sell into. In otherwords they create the buyers they need at your loss!!!
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Update so far so good and the 1.618 extension puts us at our ideal target level of $2238+-. I personally missed the opportunity to short out of the consolidation box, but that was what we were looking for and I will not add to my short position at this time.
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I am taking a little off the table here with my short. I only at this point had a 1/3 short position as I missed the breakout of the channel, but I am happy with making a few bones on this trade, and will take some off the table and look for a better setup. Remember this and it should be posted above your monitor.
"I made a fortune getting out to early" "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered" We are at a reversal point and we do not want to get caught with our hands in the cookie jar in the event we are incorrect. This is crucial money management. This is NOT the time to be adding to your short position.
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Just so I don't hear, ohhhh you were wrong!! $3400 is not a place to short but take some off the table. You made money why not. It can continue down as we believe it will, but it can also turn around and head up. I'm looking at alt coins like DASH ZEC OMG and NEO and they are trending up. I'm not saying BTC will turn and run to $6000 from here, $2200 is still our target, but we must have a plan to exit in the event it breaksout. I hope you are looking at fibb corrections and no where you would need to cover if it revereses more than it should to continue to $2200. You better have a plan!
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Beautiful consolidation pattern forming.
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IF YOU HAVE NOT READ HOW TO TRADE CHANNELS DO NOT BE BUYING RIGHT NOW. WE NEED MORE THAN A BREAKOUT. PLEASE READ HOW TO TRADE TREND CHANNELS AND TEST IT WITH A SMALL AMOUNT BEFORE YOU LOSE YOUR BUTT!
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I'm getting the panic mode from many. Please remember and if you look at the 2nd chart down from the comment section on Sept 19th, we had labeled 2 directions, one we wanted to see, the other we didn't want to see. I have updated this, the current movement does not invalidate the $2200 target mark. I have mentioned $4400 is a possibility before we go lower but I will revise that to this current chart on the left which would be the ABC correction of wave 2.
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$4600 in my mind must be broken to consider a bull run. That's a key level and if we break that then the red pattern (i just put the pattern not the numbers are off) would gain probability over the green trend pattern.
@cryptomaniac1981, just updated. personal emergency today with my mom, she is ok but was at the hospital for 8 hours ;( and one of our employees had a heart attack. Not a good day, and I do not like hospitals!
@goldbug1, Hey oef that's not good news. Hope for them all will be good. Thanks for updating your analyses. I use your opinion to benchmark my own! It helps a lot!
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I just clicked follow.
I have been looking for someone to follow, who explains and basically helps for over 6 months and I pick you.
I know this may sound boring but many people here are new and need solid help/guidance. I am a gambler and really want to be a trader.
This post is 10/10 but still way above many peoples levels. Perhaps a post re using MacD, Fib retrace, HMA, trend lines and volume would help as nobody (I have found) appears to explain in basic English how it all works individually and then all together. As dumb as it sounds a step by step 1-5 indicators guid. This is a fantastic channel and thank you very much on behalf of the CGA. (Crypto Gambling association)
CryptoKnightNZ
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@Crypt-Know, I would love to see a simple breakdown of that info too. I just started 2 weeks ago and while I've done a bit of reading on it already its taking sometime to sink in and gets a bit overwhelming at times. A simple concise breakdown would be very helpful. For one I know the MA in HMA is the moving average but what is the H and how is it different from other moving averages?
goldbug1
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@Crypt-Know, Love the CGA, that could be a country song! Yes I will post some stuff on the basics, which is trend lines. That is the most important aspect of trading and with that alone you can trade.
Crypt-Know
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@goldbug1, The man in Black would turn in his grave lol
evynguyen
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@Crypt-Know, Well spotted mate! He is a very generous man to shared what he sees honestly. His guidances have saved many people from losing their hard earned money. I would thank him million times. I wonder if he has published any trading book, if so I would like to buy it straight away ;)
goldbug1
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@evynguyen, I'm not that good, but thank you for the compliment! I have learned from the school of hard knocks and following many guys I consider geniuses!