1- Why is the price dropping so violently? 2- Supports? 3- Disgusting momentum 4- Examples: Gold Nasdaq 5- MASSIVE selling potential 6- Bots saving the price + desperate miners & exchanges
Part 1 2 3 are in the video
For part 4 I would like to show some examples of bear markets and in particular strong momentums (down):
First this is what Bitcoin is not
This is what Bitcoin is similar to
Now the BTC chart...
BTC side by side with euro
Do you see the potential? Let me zoom out :) ^.^
Part 5 -
This is not only the 2017 investors now, since we might drop below monthly moving averages, you got everyone (and I mean EVERYONE Vitalik Satoshi Hal Finey children whatever) that might sell now. Also, Jihan Wu is in trouble, as all miners, not only is he suspected of having used clients ressources to mine, and might get a bill, but he has a company to run and bills to pay, and this company is bagHODLing hundreds of thousands of numbers in a database. Buyers do not want to touch this horrible thing, miners are in trouble, there are huge amounts to be sold, people that "bought the dip" might get stopped quickly "gave it a try", money from wall street is in big trouble with the "volatility" you heard the NatGas story right? That guy was my avatar for a while :p The US stock market funds are in the red they cannot speculate, and they get judged quarter to quarter they will NEVER buy and hold crypto's. Guys like Warren Buffet are the only buyers in such situations... and ... you know their stance. Only value investors I know are Warren B, Charlie Munger, Phil Town but I'm pretty sure they represent the majority.
Part 6 - The price might go up! Might go up ALOT! To 1 million even, totally possible. See, when people have their back on the wall, they sometimes do really stupid things. Miners & exchanges have their backs on the wall (to CSW & Calvin Ayre delight - and mine). Do not get surprised if 100 BILLION with a b get printed and 1 million BTC get bought @ market...
So take care with shorts.
I am not shorting myself, for the following reasons: 1 cba. 2 do not want to be in a lawsuit for years after Tether manipulates the price to 1 million in a day out of desperation. 3 I want to focus on my one and only strategy of trend reversal. 4 I already got enough exposure as is, I am on some awesome opportunities right now, some stocks that will very probably bounce AND my risk to reward is around 3!
If you take a look at order books today, each time the price drops bots save it. But every bounce is getting weaker. Going to break soon.
Commentaire
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I guess Bitcoin is dropping faster now... Exponential acceleration down :D When it is all over I will focus more on stocks bagHODLers and I might start a "hidden gems" series where I post some great opportunities I dug up. I will miss the fun the bagHODLers have provided. Let's hope another bubble happens soon.
Commentaire
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Ripple OTC Distribution transfered half a billion ripple to an unknown wallet, and an unknown wallet transfered almost half a billion $$ to an unknown wallet (did not check if they were the same w/e).
Good luck bagHODLers...
I really need to know of someone that monitors satoshi wallets.
We can start to see how Bitcoin will look compared to the mississipi and Tulip Bubble. BagHODLers were right, Bitcon will not go away, it will stay in our memories and will have its spot forever among the great bubbles of humanity.
Commentaire
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Inside bar bull break! For historical reasons I hope it is not a fakeout, would be nice to see a big clear denial phase. I do not think it would last more than a few weeks thought. I green weekly candle or 2 is enough.
Bitcoin has been following market cycle pychology perfectly until now.
There is at least another 2 years of Bitcoin prices going lower. There could be some bull markets that last 3 to 9 months, but all within a bear of 3 to 4 years.
Crypto is very educational I think that's the main reason I took an interest in it. I expect it to keep following the textbook of market cycles.
After these years of bear market I do not know what is next, alot can happen, maybe another crypto that is not expensive non-usable doesn't scale and not generally awful gets somewhere and every one forgets about BTC core, maybe it just goes to 0 and that's it. Idk we'll see.
Je_Buurman
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@MrRenev, thnx, yes it follows the "cheat-sheet " nicely. But that didn't quite answer my question. So let me rephrase that. Your chart shows the bubble starting 2015 till the pop 2018. Bitcoin had ca. 3 bubbles before that that were the same, very next bubble was higher than the previous (growth-deflate-growth-deflate). Do you think this was the final top/bubble ? Do you think, Elliott-wave-wise we are at A now ?
MrRenev
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@Je_Buurman,
I am going to write as I think about this...
What the texbook says is that once the public learns of something, or in other words once a bubble goes mainstream, it pops drops to "baseline" whatever that means and can never reform the same (not as strong anyway).
Bitcoin is below its "baseline", so it is literally impossible for it to be like the internet now. Now it looks more like tulips that lost their trendline too...
This is how new technologies and bubbles alike work:
1- No one heard about it, innovators are in (Bill Gates, Satoshi, Famous Apple guy ok steve jobs I just remembered). Hard to access etc. Bitcoin 2011 basically.
2- There is a wave of early adopters visible as a bump on charts in any good book. Usually gets called a bear trap. Bitcoin 2014.
3- Then there is the majority that gets divided in the early majority (late 2016 to early 2017 I guess), the late majority (past March 2017 maybe) and finally the laggards (Bitcoin nov 2017 past $5000 AND those that "bought the dip" "so cheap Bitcoin" at $6000.
I made a pretty drawing might as well post it here:
I had an EW count. Was supposed to be overbearish but we still have not gotten a B so it was overbullish after all I knew it ^.^
What I personally think will happen unironically is this:
Soooo... looking at a successful example, www companies got huge, but most of the startups from the 99's are gone and people lost all of their money.
In 20 years, the market as a whole got back to breakeven point inflation adjusted (I think we are in a bubble now and crash soon thought).
BUT NEVER have the very fast crazy gains from 1999 repeated.
"When a bubble pops it can never go parabolic again". Never once in history has this rule been broken, this would be the first time.
Lmao and also all the "1rst ones" the guys before amazon (no idea the name) the guys before facebook (myspace and 2 other I can't remember) the "1rst big navigator" before ie edge opera chrome ff (was called netscape I used that they had a lighthouse as logo I think, was nice), do you know of these companies? They are all gone.
The "1rst ones" never seem to be the ones that remain...
So there are all the if's:
- IF someone finds a use to crypto (none in 10 years & all the companies that said they went full blockchain 1 year ago haven't said a word since...),
- IF the economy goes well in the next 20 years (probably not time for a prolonged bear market),
- IF Bitcoin is "the crypto" that makes it, all the flaws get fixed and it is "the one", something that never happens but this time for once the "first one" is the "successful one",
- IF governments don't ban it all,
- IF Bitcoin survives and there are no 51% attack, no one destroys the whole thing...
- IF people support Bitcoin after it lost all its last supports (trendline & monthly moving averages)
THEN, MAYBE, in 20 years or more, Bitcoiners might break even.
How could they buy Lamborginis and all kinds of useless dumb shit if they didn't cash out. The fact is they probably cashed out SOME, bought Lamborginis and shit, and they "lost" (or temporarily so) the rest. Well, at least they got the useless shit and still holds coins that will be worth a lot of money some day. Pretty much smarter than the regular guy if you ask me.
MrRenev
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@Htretto, I encourage you to read article "From 500k a day to losing 9m" about a journalist that got lucky but did not get anything out as he was bad. He just kept buying more. Here is a quote "I was paying thousands of dollars a day in interest, but for each US1000 rise in bitcoin's value, I was making about half a million dollars. And in those heady days, bitcoin was making US1000 gains every other day."
In the stock market you can see how much money has been borrowed to buy stocks (does not tell how much debt people got to buy cars etc neither does it tell of money borrowed from friends relatives or mafia guys), it is alot (700 billion now I think), I do not know of having such info in crypto plus it must be lower now. People are pretty silent on this. But I can guarentee at 99.9% people that did not put all their lifesavings into crypto use whats left to buy stuff because they "feel rich" and those that did put everything in crypto were up so much and had such big virtual numbers on portfolio apps that they borrowed money (for example buy something pay over a period of 48 months $1500 every month).
When I started trading I did not have much and even I started spending more. And I am extra conservative and always super careful...
Some people did cash out (Justin Sun, Charlie Lee) but from the data we have seen I am near certain sellers did not appear. The reason BTC crashed is we ran out of buyers.
They are way more, so much more, people that borrowed money while their crypto portfolio was up, than people that bought in early like 2012, or people that bought early 2017 and sold, like 50 times more. But interestingly you only hear about the latter. The losers are not very talkative.
It comes as no surprise that one of the few people that are honest about this is a journalist... Not going to roast the few that have the decency to admit this. I found another article, a girl, ah a journalist too what a coincidence. They just love stories they love talking saying everything. Wasn't trying to say they are symbols of truth, just that they like to talk. Even if it is dirt on themselves.