I'm sure this will bring out the "I told you so's" but I man enough to admit when I'm wrong. I was wrong about waiting for a major correction and even though I am in at $4300 originally I have missed several opportunities to add to this position for the long term. Yes we have made some trades, but those trades should have been long term holds at least in accordance with how I invest for the long term. Einstein said years ago that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. This is one of the most influential sayings in my investment method. If it's not working why keep doing it?
So I have modified my strategy as I am in this for the long haul. The more I learn the more I love crypto currencies and the effect they will have in our lifetime. Now like most of you I do not make a living off trading. I make a living working; and I invest not only to make money but to preserve the money I made. Wealth preservation. Now some, if not most of you, are new to investing and want to be the next Paul Tudor Jones, Nicholas Darvas or Ed Seykota. Three of the most successful traders ever. Their returns undeniably defy even the best traders in history. But just like poker you MUST know your place at the table and mine is not with the large stack. Many of my techniques are derived from all three of these guys, but in the long haul I'm an investor 1st!
So what is my new strategy. If you can look at a chart from 10 feet away and see the trend, that's how you want to be positioned. Clearly from the graph this is not a wedge, this is not a flag, it's a full blown upward channel with an almost parallel top and bottom resistance support line. Even using faint lines it's clear this trend is up. But even though it has continued to defy a MAJOR correction it does correct often enough for us to jump in and add to our position.
Over 30 years of investing I started investing in one stock every month like clockwork, and as my income grew I started adding to more where I am up to 5 stocks every other week. I buy regardless of price knowing I am cost averaging for the long term. So this is my new strategy with Bitcoin'. I plan on adding a specific amount every week with a caveat! For example if I budget for $200 per week I will take $100 of that and put it aside in my USD wallet to add on any dip. This is the same strategy I use for stocks as cash is always king during corrections. This is a long term strategy period!
Now how do I get 250k and to be fair this is a very long term projection over decades. There is about 1.25 oz of gold' ($1625) in the world per person. There will eventually be about 0.0028 bitcoins per person in the world as well. Now like there are alt coins there are other precious metals like platinum', silver'. But bitcoin' is the gold' standard in cryptos. The numbers are staggering to say the least. So if each 0.0028 bitcoins is worth $1625 then that would mean the cost of 1 bitcoin' is 580k. Now keep in mind there are more alts then alt metals but like gold it's the standard. So let's take 580k and divide by 3 to be fair (as I assume there will be 8-9 other alts that will be similar to silver and platinum). There is your 200k. So why am I worried about buying at 8k or 9k? I want to accumulate now for the long haul. Once large firms come in the price will go up as a storage of wealth as even though they criticize it on CNBC and other news outlets they are in the background accumulating. Bottom line there is not enough to go around and just like gold and silver I want to accumulate over a period of years.
Commentaire
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OK we have been Jinxed by Jim Cramer. I have posted a comparison at least two or three times to Cisco charts in the 90's. Jim Cramer just mentioned it looks like the qualcom or Cisco chart on Squawk on the Street! NOOOOOOOOO!
Commentaire
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Now I am highly superstitious but at the same time bitcoin hit $11,000 we hit 11,000 followers ;). But I have no idea what that means. But seldom things are a coincidence. Anyways I have seen chart after chart on CNBC with bitcoin showing a parabolic move. Well on a standard chart it is parabolic but this is not a fair comparison. Also I have mentioned early on that the MACD is about as worthless when looking at cryptos as a bull with utters. The PPO is a much better indicator and provides a better comparison with previous price movements. So with all the hype around $11,000 I have provided this chart to keep it in perspective. We are entering a top according to the PPO comparing it over the past couple of runs, but no where near the run we had in 2014. So is there room to go? Absolutely!! Could we get a pullback? Absolutely!! But this chart definitely puts it into perspective that we are still not at the bubble levels of 2014.
@goldbug1 uh oh....my gut tells me that when even an accused "perpetual bear" like yourself (albeit untrue) goes bullish, that's around the time where we'll really see a correction that catches everyone off guard. I will say I've been selling since the mid 5000's looking for a pullback...painful to see it keep running but as @MarcPMarkets says, a profit is a profit.
goldbug1
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@janor123, LOL where does everyone get I am a perpetual bear? I have since the beginning had a target price of 11k. I had just anticipated a major pullback before we got there. I accumulate coins every week!
venturetrade
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@goldbug1, maybe from your profile picture? just a guess ha ha
toddreg
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Goldbug, I follow and admire your typical non emotional approach. However, did you forget about your post from yesterday about how BTC is being manipulated, about the bubble about the RISK. What is the economic basis for BTC? Go outside and take a walk and come back and rethink this post. I think you are going to get your plow cleaned by BTC at some point. There is zero justification for such lofty prices. Just trying to help you like you have helped me.
alter.daemon
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@toddreg,
explanation is very simple. there is a big inflow of new speculators now. they're not waiting for correction and entering right away. no reason for any conspiracy theories.
still I fully I agree that the pricing for crytpos vs fundamentals is ridiculous but what can you do besides staying out of this market? :)
Adamkm
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@toddreg, About the same justification as Diamonds holding such ridiculously high value for a piece of compressed carbon with very little use for anything. Enough diamond exists to last us 2 million years if it wasn't shiny it would be worth less than coal.
goldbug1
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@Adamkm, LOL that depends, I buy diamonds dirt cheap, if you go to a store and buy them that's a different story and Debeer's has a monopoly on the diamond industry, but in the end it's supply and demand.
goldbug1
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@toddreg, Manipulation is one thing, however, this is a long term target and I mentioned decades, not a year or two. I'm not sure there needs to be justification other than what the market dictates. Keep in mind there are only 19 million coins or so. Coinbase is opening up 100k accounts every 3 days. If each of those accounts buy 1/10th of a bitcoin that is 10k bitcoins a day. As we are seeing demand is outpacing supply and regardless of how the banks or others are trying to manipulate the price, (and they will) manipulation can only be done on a short term, as supply and demand quickly picks up the slack. I think if you were to have told someone in 2002 when gold was at $200 that it would be at $2000 in ten years they would have had the same response. Same if you were to tell someone in 1972 when gold was around $60 that it would be $2000 in 40 years they would have probably thought the same. And there is a lot more gold then there is bitcoin in the world. Again this is theoretical and only time will tell. This is risky and only monies that can be afforded to be lost should be used for cryptos. Gold and stocks should be part of any well balanced portfolio!
One note Justify Amazon's price! I thought it was overpriced last year at $600. Is it overpriced now at $1200? It's all relative, the market determines the price in the end regardless of fundamentals.
Rosdat
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@goldbug1, Did you read the research that says that maybe 4mill BTC are already lost? Plus all the hodlers that like the golbugs will never sell. Supply is still very very low