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Bitcoin - The Bigger Picture

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
As BTC continues squeeze, many like myself are stuck wondering when the next move will happen.

Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin on log scale, you will notice that it is inching its way closer to the long term trendline. It appears that if the price remains stable, within the next day or two we will come into contact.
Once contact is made, I believe a large move in either direction could be possible.

IF Bitcoin is able to break up from this trendline, I likely enter a long position.
However, must keep in mind there is possible resistance at the next trendline up around $7200 that we must also pass for there to be any significant upward movement.

IF Bitcoin is once again rejected from this TL, I believe the 6000-6200 range could still serve as support. This would leave BTC to continue squeezing to a point.

IF 6000 support fails, there is also the yearly horizontal support line at 5800 which yet again could produce a bounce.

IF 5800 support would fail. It would be a huge setback from the crypto market, and would likely mean that this downward trend is far from over.

What I am expecting:
Looking at the VPSI on the daily, it shows that both bull and bear volume pressure are reaching the charged zone. However looking closer, it shows that despite the Bulls currently maintaining minor control, the Bears have reached their reversal zone. Meaning that they have a higher chance of reclaiming control at the moment.

Looking at the daily MAs. It also appears that Bitcoin is having a very difficult time reclaiming even the 13 daily MA.

With those two points in mind, and Bitcoin nearing trendline resistance, I believe a move down is slightly more likely. If you have been following my past ideas, I believe that the 6000-6200 zone could provide an excellent spring that could push up over the trendline.

This all being said, with this lack of movement any prediction could turn out correct. So don't overtrade this chop. Just set tight, and let the market show us the way.



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