A bear market combined with holiday trade is NOT a good recipe for trade ideas. High probability opportunities, particularly on the swing trade time frame require a catalyst, along with decent order flow. As you can see, over the previous two weeks, there was NO follow through. I have enough experience to recognize this environment and I warned my followers numerous times (see my previous article) about taking action during this slow period.
So now that the holiday nonsense is over, can we expect back to normal price action staring on Tuesday? Not exactly. You have to consider this from the perspective of volume and broad economic environment. You can't just flip a switch and volume goes back to higher levels just because we want it to. I expect this no action holiday mode to continue until the next major economic event which is NFP on Friday.
Again, AVOID exaggerated price forecasts and other attempts to lure your attention. You actually make fake gurus rich by simply watching their content (thanks to the Youtube partner program). Watching analysis and forecasts on social platforms is the same as expecting to gain actionable advice from a children's cartoon. It's entertainment and nothing more.
As far as short term Bitcoin price expectations: the fluff FREE variables that I consider have NOT CHANGED. The larger time frame trend maintains a bearish structure and has yet to compromise ANY major resistance levels. The first major resistance is the 18,500 area (my most recent short idea was from 17,595 and closed for 755 profit). Interest rates are still rising (see US 10 Yields). The Dollar has yet to produce a bullish retrace but is still in a position that is attractive for longs. All this means, the stock market and Bitcoin do not have much potential on the long side at least over the next COUPLE OF WEEKS. (Forecasting longer than that is not practical for swing trades).
Do NOT force trades in this environment. Either an opportunity aligns or it does not. I have very specific criteria the market has to meet in order to justify risk on the swing trade time frame. And there has been absolutely NOTHING to do over the 3rd and 4th week of December.
I am using this time to plan my speculative growth portfolio which will contain Bitcoin along with some high risk/ high growth stocks / alts , etc. The thing is, the investment schedule is going to play a key role in managing risk effectively for such an initiative. This is not something I am sharing publicly. Before anything else, consider specific portfolio goals, account for the RISKS and then research specific companies or other instruments to find the potential opportunities that meet the criteria of your plan. For me, that translates into about 15 to 20 companies/instruments etc.
Otherwise we WAIT for NFP and see what kind of tone it sets for the coming weeks. For those of you who like to be blindly optimistic: being "positive" does not offer any advantage or make you any more competitive in an environment that is mostly random. The market offers perspective for those whose eyes are opened to it. Being optimistic or pessimistic is a choice that is completely irrelevant to the reality of price. Stop letting the liabilities of human nature effect your decisions and instead view the market from the perspective of price. Price is honest, while people prefer to see the world through the comforting lens of their ego.
Exchanges just grabbing liquidity here and there. The biggest crypto villain and conman Sam is pumping the market with stolen funds. The shit-show is the same
dmbarrad
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see ya in 2025, 100k$
LaPiovra
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Zero hype, pure realism, thx again.
noble1ones
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Quote: "A bear market combined with holiday trade is NOT a good recipe for trade ideas." I disagree. Any market at any time always provides trading opportunities. Trade ideas are relevant to trade strategy/type. Quote: "High probability opportunities, particularly on the swing trade time frame require a catalyst" I disagree. A swing trade's time length is from days to weeks. There have been multiple swing opportunities in Bitcoin over the "holidays" due to multiple swing points. Quote:" As you can see, over the previous two weeks, there was NO follow through." ? Follow through to what? From the December 19 low price stopped the prior downward trend(swing trade). Price action began to trade sideways more or less offering multiple swing trades without any sort of 'catalyst' what-so-ever during a holiday period that you deem to be nonsense. Is the lack of downward resumption, the "no follow through" that you're implying? Quote: " I have enough experience to recognize this environment and I warned my followers numerous times (see my previous article) about taking action during this slow period." Again, earlier you referred to swing trades. There were multiple opportunities for such trading strategies. Then there is the opportunity to use leverage as well to increase one's bang for their buck during a lower volatile period. Markets aren't random. They are patterned. Quote: "So now that the holiday nonsense is over, can we expect back to normal price action staring on Tuesday?" What is it that YOU consider to be normal? As far as I'm concerned markets do 1 of 3 things ad nauseum. They trend upwards, downwards, and sideways. Within those trends there are moments where volatility increases, decreases, and subsides. 'Holiday nonsense' as you label it is part of the ebb and flow within the cycles of a given market. This is a period of the year that repeats every year, it's not a random thing. It's a pattern. It has its pros and cons just like any other 'seasonal' tendencies regarding financial instruments in certain sectors and industries. There are so many holes in the thesis above that it renders a piece of swiss cheese appear whole. I could take it apart layer by layer due to all the contradictions and waste an enormous amount of time in doing so in the process. I prefer not to due to the length this reply would become.
In the last paragraph the author states: Quote: " For those of you who like to be blindly optimistic: being "positive" does not offer any advantage or make you any more competitive in an environment that is mostly random" Now we're getting to the truth of this whole thesis. The author is bias and the sentiment he's expressing is through a bearish tone.
Apparently, if anyone is optimistic then they must be blind according to the author. Then he proceeds to contradict himself once again with the 'random' belief of his. Even his NFP strategy is cyclical. It's an event that repeats every first Friday of every month! It's not random.
simplejoe1
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@noble1ones, i think he meant no high probability swing trade opportunities
noble1ones
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@simplejoe1, There were and still are plenty of opportunities. Even as I write this opportunities are developing. Trading patterns develop non stop. All the best!
noble1ones
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@simplejoe1, I just posted a potential Bullish swing trade pattern/set up that formed over the course of the author's 'nonsense holiday period'. All the best!
RobRobin
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@noble1ones, "trading patterns develop non stop" Ok, so? Marc is trying to tell you what patterns are worth the risk considering Risk/Reward point of view...We all know that markets move all the time but this doesn't mean that we have to play every single trade possible...Indeed being able to chose the best for you is the key to success..
noble1ones
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@RobRobin, reward to risk ratio in the SWING PATTERN I mentioned lately and the one before that was and still is worth the risk to reward. What got me is he peeing on people who have a positive outlook being blind. Clearly he's bearish due to his 'bear market' stance and the swing trades I mentioned went against his outlook. So who's the blind one? It's ok to post one's opinion on market direction, but it's not ok to denigrate people based on the stance they have. Let people be , just post ideas........ In my humble opinion