It is important to understand the following. BTC hates you. Yes, it hates you, every single one of you. And it tries to destroy you, wherever it can. When you're long, it dumps. When you're short, it pumps. Why does it do this? Because whales play us. They can play this low volume market easily, and play the market contrary to what the mass of people do.
So I've noticed yesterday how the long/short ratio on finex was spiking. Everyone including his mother apparently went long. What does BTC do? Of course it dumps. When the longs are killed now, and everyone including his grandpa go short, then it will pump.
The situation where we are now is very similar to late 2014/early 2015 in the last bearmarket, visualized by these fractals. Here, after the local low, it went down again to the 0.618 fib support area. And then suddenly, when everyone probably expected the next low, it spiked like crazy.
I assume we'll see something similar. Then many people will turn bullish, and of course BTC wants to destroy them with the ultimate low around April.
That is my mentality: BTC hates me, and you. Therefore I try to think like: What would be the shittiest thing to happen? And that's what BTC mostly does. Not always, because as we know BTC is a probabilistic system. But you get the idea :)
I am short term short, but will switch to long soon. Then short again for the final dump.
Commentaire
⋅
This here might be the short term reversal, slowly leading up to the spike, corresponding to the spike at 475 USD on 13th of Nov 2014. It could top out at 5200, or something like that.
Commentaire
⋅
It takes more time to unfold and probably wants to dump again to 3400 area on finex. Probably because it wants to follow exactly the black line I drew XD
Commentaire
⋅
BTC, what are you doing? You should stick to the lines I drew!! The breakout to the upside is a few days too early :P
Ok joking aside, let's see, this could finally be the beginning of the upswing to 5000.
As I said, the weekly needs to go to overbought territory, it hasn't been there in over a year, which never happened in BTC history before. It needs to go to overbought in order for the next dump wave to be strong.
The whales know how to play this, hehe.
Commentaire
⋅
I'm pretty sure this was the low. Now let the pump to 5000 begin:
I like your thoughts. Honestly did the same reasoning, closed most longs and decided to hedge yesterday, since L\S ratio was increasing, all TV charts were bullish, so I said to my self "naaah, somebody gotta pay the lunch, surely exchanges won't pay it, neither their big coin friends, so who's gonna pay - longs".
You are good analyst. Respect.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@Mo6e, Thanks a lot :) Exactly, someone has to pay the bill, and it certainly ain't the whales or the exchanges hehe. And not everyone can magically earn money, so that's why BTC likes to do the opposite of what most people think it will do XD
Richard H. Thaler has incorporated psychologically realistic assumptions into analyses of economic decision-making. By exploring the consequences of limited rationality, social preferences, and lack of self-control, he has shown how these human traits systematically affect individual decisions as well as market outcomes.
You can't predict even next second event :) Richard H. Thaler proved thar there is no one any complex mathematical model for describing the market. Because every trader on the market is essentially an uneducated idiot who imagines himself Nostradamus.
And even if your prediction came true, it does not mean that your model works. This means that you are just lucky as in a casino.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@BearFuck, Then why have I been making consistent gains with over thousands of trades history? One CAN earn money with trading, else this stuff would be pointless, and I would have moved on a long time ago ;)
BearFuck
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, So why didn't you then bargain for all the money in the market? Because, like thousands of profitable trades, you have thousands of losses
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@BearFuck, Ist seems that you Don:t understand the concept of Trading. The Goal is to be above 50% expectation value. Of course you will always have Bad trades. But if say 60% of the trades are good, you will earn money over longer periods of time. TA Just gives you a slight Edge, it is of course Not a magical weapon that gives you a 100% rate of success.
BearFuck
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67,It seems you don't understand. TA it is simply an irrational religion for irrational people, like any religion TA sets irrational dates of Christmas (for example Bullish Divergence) or Easter (for example MACD cross lines) on which you can take profit, if there are enough of irrational people who believe in this nonsense. If there not enough of irrational people who believe in this nonsense you take losses.
BearFuck
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, You may ask why technical analysis it's religion? I can answer you. Because no one technical analyst won nobel prize.
BearFuck
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, I analyzed all your predictions. The probability of your predictions is approximately 50/50. With the same success, you can bet on the casino in red or black. In fact, you simply do not advise to bet on zero :)
Nothing personal. Just information for people with technical education. Not for the humanities :)
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@BearFuck, lol. Whatever, If you don't believe that Trading works, maybe you shouldn't spend too much time on tradingview ;)
You are good analyst. Respect.