Current bearish factors : - a large bearish flag - a strong MACD divergence - a huge RSI divergence - a steady increase in institutional short positions (COT report) - a significant drop in volumes in recent months - a weekly bearish MACD cross - a death cross in progress - the great powers want to regulate the market
This publication is a trend hypothesis.
Commentaire
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In TF2h I see that the current technical rebound corresponds well to the expected result for a small bullish divergence in a downward configuration. IMO it's a real bulltrap.
Bitcoin has become a religion and it is difficult to express a vision that is not bullish. I think your analyse is perfectly reasonable, at least it makes total sense to me. We are in a period of complacency and denial. A market whatever market it is won't be going up forever. It is needed to take a few steps back and look at the charts over several years. Even after the correction, we got on 19/05, the market is overextended (no support between 30k and 20k for BTC). I don't think anybody well-informed would FOMO into crypto those days. I'm absolutely enthusiastic about the future of Bitcoin and cryptos, but I also accept the market rules with their ups and downs. Being well informed allows surfing the market to buy low and sell high. That way the emotions won't take over :)
DissiDX
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I don’t think that the market will panic sell low to 20k. But a drop to 28k seems possible.