There is a great probability now, that CADJPY will retest previous lows and further. A week Canadian dollar and a stronger Yen, sum it all up at this moment. Broke the daily trend, reason for which we will be looking for sells setups only, on this pair. If you aren't yet in the trade, look for small flags or corrective structures to the upside on the smaller timeframes (4hr or 60min) and sell their break, with a stop loss above them.
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don't you think that as usdcad got a strong impulse to the downside, if you're still targeting down for cadjpy it means that usdjpy must drop agressively. we can now expect a retest of usdcad 1.25 with today move, and a target of cadjpy=0.80 gives usdjpy=usdcad*cadjpy=100 !!
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, hello there. Please forgive the fact that there could be some misunderstanding on our communications due to the timeframes we are reciprocally considering. In any case. As of now, we are keeping our original USDCAD analysis for medium term downside. So, according to our chart, USDCAD will now go swiftly to the 1.246 level, and then it could go for one more up to retest the 1.32 area before the bigger downtrend continuation. However, it could also drop directly from the 1.246 level without going for one more up. In any case, we are still assuming that it will go for the bigger downtrend continuation (1.2 - 1.165 areas).
Our analysis on the USDJPY has to be revised now instead because, as it stands of now, the pair will go and retest previous lows. We were aware that the last up move (104.7 to 111.38) could have been the completion of a (very) irregular running flat type pattern instead of the big impulse that will take the pair to the 122 area. But, as these patterns don't show up that often, added to the fact that the pair had already gone through what ticked all the boxes for a corrective structures, we went long from the 104.7 - 105.3 area hoping that this was the big swing we are all waiting to 122. Which, obviously, will happen later. Going back to your question: yes, USDJPY could drop aggressively, and it should, but CADJPY we have closed in BE (as commented earlier today) and it is not our focus anymore. (we have added short positions on GBPNZD, natural gas and now we are analysing and considering long on gold and silver. Also monitoring NZDUSD for buys and waiting for the first correction on GBPCAD and USDCAD for shorts (which will happen as soon as WTI falls further to the 64 - 65 area (which it should still do, as it's corrective structure as of now is still incomplete).
Hope this helps,
lapin_eliott
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@TradingClear, confusing move today, not clear if it was a good opportunity to enter new short to target 1.24/1.25 or if usdcad will revisit 1.32 before. one thing sure, you should have kept your cadjpy short ! ^^
lapin_eliott
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how do you see the cad weakness you are mentionning in the framework of gbpcad, eurcad, usdcad ? for these three pairs the cad rally you have been analysing in previous posts was efficiently unfolding, could the usdcad eurcad and gbpcad be derailed soon ?
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, the Canadian weakness I was mentioning was referred to the moment (very short term, last sessions). Overall, we are expecting one more move down on all pairs (USDCAD, GBPCAD and EURCAD), also in the short term. But then, if we want to see a stronger CAD in the medium term against all pairs, which I assume we will, considering also the WTI is correcting to the downside but it's just a small correction, in any case all pairs will have to consolidate on the daily (which could be just up-sideways, really), before resuming the the daily downtrend. This week was pretty intense managing positions, so the CADJPY publication was a bit rushed. I would say that the main driver in the CADJPY is the YEN, really, and that the main driver in the USDCAD, GBPCAD, and EURCAD is not just the CAD but EURO and GBP dropping and USD correcting.
lapin_eliott
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@TradingClear, you are not in the group of those who foresee a major drop for WTI (not just a small correction) ? because i'm quite worried for usdcad to be honest, it is giving signs of a potential derailing to the upside now.
TradingClear
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@lapin_eliott, CAD is having it's moment of weakness before we were anticipating, due to the current WTI correction to the downside, we believe, which is affecting all CAD pairS, USDCAD, GBPCAD, and EURCAD, each one according to strength or weakness of the counter-pair (the euro being the weakest of the three, it seems). The movement on WTI seems pretty aggressive, but at the moment we will maintain our previous analysis and assume that it is still a corrective movement which is ending very soon, to resume its' upside trend right after: