C2Trends

S&P500 Below 100-Week Average

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CME_MINI:ES1!   Contrats à terme E-mini S&P 500
The S&P 500 crossed below the 100-week price average at $3,995 today which is the first cross below the 100-week average since May 11th, 2020. The 100-week average acted as temporary support last week, but buyers were unable to hold that level on the first day of trading this week.

In the last S&P 500 update shared back on March 6th price was trading near $4,260, rallied for two weeks afterward to near $4,600, stalled out, and has now fallen roughly -6% from the March 6th update price level to $3,995 today. Much like when price failed to hold above the 50-week average and a move to the 100-week was anticipated back on March 6th, now that price is crossing below the 100-week average rather than holding above it we can anticipate a potential move down to test the 200-week price average near $3,500 which is roughly -13% lower than todays close at $3,995.

The PPO indicator is showing bearish price momentum with the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line, with both lines trending down and below the horizontal 0 level. As long as both lines are trending below the 0 level the short-term momentum for the SP500 will remain bearish .

The ADX indicator shows the purple DI line rising and above the green DI line which indicates a short-term bearish trend behind price. The purple histogram behind the DI lines is rising which indicates increasing strength in the bearish trend behind price.

The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending below the 40 level, currently at 32, which indicates bearish momentum behind price. The green RSI line is also crossing below the lower, purple Bollinger Band which indicates bearish momentum volatility behind price.

Overall, the S&P 500 remains bearish with price crossing below the 100-week average and lower indicators all reading bearish trend and momentum behind price. Main thing to watch for now is whether or not this week closes below the 100-week average or $4,000 level, both are technical and psychological levels of interest.

The last two times price closed below the 100-week average were in December 2018 and March 2020, both of which saw eventual moves in price down to test the 200-week average as is anticipated after todays dip below the 100-week average.

-2018 saw a -21% decline from peak to bottom.
-2020 saw a -36% decline from peak to bottom.
-Price is currently -17% below the 2021 peak near $4,800.

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