1. Market pricing in the positive progression on German politics (coalition), lack of fresh news coming out of it, I am neutral on Euros right now (but keep my eyes peeled for the German CPI)
2. The "hawkish" statements by Powell, it should make the dollar supported for the day at least.
3. Technically, EURUSD making a lower-low price structure, so technical sentiment for me aligns with the fundamental sentiment today.
RISKS for this plan (which could invalidate the plan)
1. Germany Prelim CPI numbers is stronger than expected (Forecast : 0.3%, previous 0.0%). Even if the number 0.1% (more than previous), it could move the Euros upwards.
2. Any negative language came out from tax reform news
3. OPEC meeting today. USD can be pressured if oil price rallying (ripple effect from USDCAD)