GC Futures analyssis

My Gold Analysis :
Case 1(30% probability) :If GC break 1695 ..then stron buy until 1703 ...if break and bounce on 1704/1705 thenBuy until 1715 ....
Case 2 (70% Probability) :But : If Gold break down 1693 then sell until 16853..and be ready to sell more...
The Start of some industries on Europe ,ad after en US will decrease the pression on Gold ...