Meta is one of those big tech companies that could potentially disappear in 5 years or so. Why? It's simple: in addition to the terrible report in February 2022, which essentially confirmed that Facebook had exhausted its growth, they began to burn money on the so-called "metaverse", which, in fact, no one needs. The only bright spot is their VR headset, but the competition is growing and they will also have to spend money on this as well. The next earnings report will be in about 2 weeks and I'm more than sure that it will be bad and the price may fall below $100 this year. If this happens and we don't return above 100/share, we can expect a further decline in the price to the levels of $40-50 (possibly by the beginning of 2024). The technical situation is also negative: a long-term uptrend has been broken, the nearest support is at the level of $100-120, a powerful downtrend on the weekly chart. I would not risk shorting the shares themselves, but it's quite possible to make money on the decline through options. I'll just buy puts for November-December and see what happens.
wsj.com/articles/metas-targeted-ad-model-faces-restrictions-in-europe-11670335772 This is very negative news for FB. I mentioned earlier that I would be shorting around $115-120, but I needed confirmation. This is the confirmation I was waiting for. I didn't use options this time, so I just shorted the stock. The position was opened just before the close of the market, around $115 per share, TP $80, SL $128. Taking into account the further fall of QQQ/SPY and the complete absence of any positive news, it's still possible to short even at $110, since we will definitely not going up in the near future.
Perhaps if they spent less time censoring unauthorized thoughts, influencing elections or trying to control the Metaverse they would have more success. Most people I know want nothing to do with Facebook after years of using it happily.
Heist_FlyZ
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@StormMarc, I completely agree. The metaverse is generally not a bad idea, but only if someone else implements this idea the way it should be, without stupid rules and frankly strange censorship.
heavy_assault
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value trap. a mega cap tech that becomes extinct, i will be watching facebook closely.
facebook+intel = dangerous value traps. if it's too cheap to be true, it probably is.
Heist_FlyZ
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@heavy_assault, Facebook is definitely a value trap. Intel...It's not clear yet. Given the fact that they'll invest at least 20B on the construction of 2 chip factories and the growing tension between China-USA-Taiwan...Who knows.
DHD269
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40.00 by 2023.
ARCHIDUKE
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dude , we need stock ideas and not rants. Run out of money in 5 years , are you retarded or something?
truond2
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While I agree people generally hate FB and it's (current) userbase is declining. Watsapp and instagram are still widely used and I think the partnership with Microsoft could be huge in the coming years. If/when MS finishes its acquisition of Activision, MS & Meta have a pretty awesome potential partnership to bring on the next gen of some of the craziest next gen games. As a gamer, I'm really looking forward to and hopeful for Diablo, World of Warcraft and other big franchises among tons of other games/applications (MS teams VR for work etc) to be used through Meta. It's a wildcard risky play, but if they pull it off, they'll be dominant in the space.
Heist_FlyZ
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@truond2, These are all just guesses. Microsoft, Google, Apple - all these stocks are much safer in the long run, since these companies have a huge amount of cash on their balance sheets. In the current economic situation, this is more important than ever. FB seems to have enough money for now, too, but they're spending it too fast.
zimeaBlue
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the moment they monetize whatsapp it will go back to ATH. I doubt they disappear in 5 years and would be willing to wager on it.
Heist_FlyZ
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@zimeaBlue, Whatsapp monetization will push current users away from the app and force them to look for alternatives like Telegram. Their only option is to focus on VR headsets. But given the pace at which they burn money on unnecessary things, they don’t have much chance. Even if the company itself doesn't disappear completely in 5 years, in the long run it's dead money anyway.