At the close of 1/31/17 the 15 minute SPX appeared to be in wave (c) up of an Elliott Wave Expanding Flat. It the count is correct wave "iii" is still forming with a subsequent "iv" down perhaps forming a few hours before the FOMC announcement. Followed by "v" up into FOMC.
A .618 retrace of the decline from 2301.00 = 2288.00 Wave (c) will be 1.618 x wave (a) = 2290.00 If SPX can rally into this zone it could be very important resistance.
The move upwards to 2298 was likely wave 'b' of an abcde triangle. Now dropping in wave 'c' which might reach the 2286 area. Once the triangle completes (if it IS a triangle) then I'm looking for the final push upwards to the 2313/7 target area, after which the market should fall to touch 2280 or lower. Target date for 2313/7 is still Feb 10th/12th.
The market rose upwards to test the high. Originally I expected a rising wedge format to hit the 2313/7 target area. However I now think we are in triangle 4th wave. This rise to 2298 is wave 'b' of the abcde triangle. My 'perfect' area for W4 is 2290/2, so I'm now expecting the apex of the triangle to be in that area. Target date for the 2313/7 high remains Feb 10/12. If this is correct, SPX will drop again for wave 'c' before eventually settling in the 2290/2 area to complete the triangle W4, after which there should be a sudden push north to hit the 2313/7 target.
If all this happens, after 2313/7 there should be a correction back to 2280, which might go lower.
kunsan
⋅
Your target was hit exactly. Congratulations.
I'm still expecting a rising wedge to 2313/7 to be achieved on Feb 10/12. The first part of the wedge was 2254 - 2301. Now in wave 'c'. The rise to 2288 was likely the first part of wave 'c', now expecting some consolidation for a day or two followed by a rise to a new high to complete wave 'c' of the abcde wedge. Target area is 2306/8.
Unfortunately the 'stop' for this idea is a trade below the FLAT low of 2254. Only if that low is broken will I change my mind.
Thanks for the comments. Interesting, I have a possible SPX bottom target on 2/10 or 2/13. Depending on what happens in the next two trading days I will have a post about this possibility.
Mark
kunsan
⋅
@markrivest, Feb 10/12 is a Bradley date so it can be a high or a low. Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens. Note that the upper trendline on the daily chart is at the 2313/7 area on those dates, so I'm expected that target area to be reached. However the situation is volatile and at the moment almost anything can happen from one day to the next.
The_Unwind
⋅
S+P has turned NEGATIVE after this morning's run-up to 2289,
right into KNOWN RESISTANCE specified.
Excellent market call here.
Whether or not we retrace this decline, or not today,
this was an EXCELLENT INTERPRETATION of a COUNTER TREND RALLY,
that rolled over almost immediately with heavy professional selling coming into the market
after the public had bought stock the the pro's were DISTRIBUTING (SELLING) at the open.