Although 2160 looks possible if there is a breakout, I think it is unlikely (too obvious).
The risk of a breakout is still existing but I bet it would be a fake one.
WIth or without fake breakout, i think the next move is one below 2040 that shall open new dynamics to 1900.
I would buy 1900 to target 2250 in November.
SPX got stuck in the current congestion(2040/2120) zone for 11 weeks. Something is probably going to happen.
Over 4 weeks Max upside: 4% Max downside: 10%
Trading plan: a touch on the 100w ema before a major firework rally..
Commentaires
GarryBartsch
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As you, I am watching for - expecting - a pullback. It is testing our patience. But I think we might have to reconsider that the market might be in the center of a rising channel and a break could go either way. This market has been so trendless of late just chopping in a descending triangle type pattern.
YaKa
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You are right.
We are going to be fixed rather quickly.. market moving 20pts a day.. so in 2 days we will be below 2070 or past 2120.
GarryBartsch
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2 hours to go and starting to come off overbought condition. Volume has been so light lately. Things could get interesting soon.
YaKa
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The market has caught up with the trajectory in 2004/2005 which is remarkable. now these 2 red lines are probably having an influence. Th e lower one seems to have capped in sep14.. now it could be helping to stay high... In any case.. if falls below 2035, it is an important event. a perfect final target would be 2260 in nov15
pezq
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When you say "too obvious" are you implying that "obvious" targets are deliberately avoided by "the market" ?
YaKa
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2170 in may (IN MAY) would be too obvious a short... market does not give perfect easy trades in the perfect timing.. (well it happened in the past but close to major bad news/retracement which we did not have here..)
Definitely intense anyway.. This is my view and how i am trading it. It does not mean i am right or I will make money.
pezq
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Hi YaKa I know you are keen on a correction. I would be interested to hear your views on my analysis
YaKa
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I will be keen on longs when they make sense but true since a few months on SP500, that is the only thing that makes sense for a large move.
Your target is possible but too obvious a short. The market will not give us such a clean easy opportunity now...
the other thing that would be possible is the market to climb without correcting until november (that would be too long a rally without a correction....
I am left with the correction scenario (maybe after a bull trap at 2125.