From a technical perspective the USDJPY put in a bearish engulfing pattern on 7/21, which coincided with the channel trend line and major resistance area of 105.5-106.5. Now today we put in a 4 hour bearish pin bar retesting that same area. The retail crowd has also been adding to their longs recently, which now sits 59% long. Just more evidence that we're setting up for a sell off. I'm short with a stop loss above 106.550 and targeting 100.
I opened two shorts at 107.18 (TL touch) with a SL of 80 pips. The first is closed with a 80 pips profit. The second is running with SL at breakeven. I think it has enough cushion to hold the two interest rate decisions (FED and BoJ). Looking at the bottom of the channel, the risk to reward looks great. The slower the move, the better the reward. Good luck!