Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$

hier

Daily & Weekly Below



Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why.

I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months.

I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume?

Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities.

Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying.

I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years.

Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be.

Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.

hier

Note

Here is the 15m chart from today. Classic Fibonacci retracement text-book retrace to the most respected level which holds.

hier

Transaction en cours

An historical look at the USDX over the past 2 years. 5 Long Rallys' in this Weekly RSI/Stochastic's' Chart.

It debunks those so called price-action tipsters, trading educators (who love writing this one off) and many others. Price has to recover from an oversold state at some point, timing is never easy, but timing is certainly possible combining other confluences, the important ones being an alignment in lower timeframes which will trigger first. Bottom line, price will recover from an oversold area at some point and the longer this period oversold condition lasts, usually the stronger the snapback and rubber band trade will be. Historically, they all line up. I did not receive 1 message when I warned about the impending rally of the USD$ because people view it as too simplistic and they would rather be advised by the price-action crowd who from my experience are the least likely to share setups, ideas and their 'calls' because they are very average traders hiding behind another trading con.
In the following chart you will see at least 1 false break in the RSI. But you wont find in the Stochastics' which moves far more accurately.

hier

Note

It was based on weekly not monthly charting as I described above. These higher level charts like weekly give the markets intended next direction the best.
This is Stochastic's at probably the most accurate setting 14,2,2 above was 8,3,5 also good (smoother). As Stochastics's K (blue) leaves the oversold zone after many weeks in oversold, in other words a sustained crossing above the Stochastics's 20 level = rally commenced every time since 2022. A simple trick they DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW.
Go back and take a look at what the Gold price did whilst in a heavily oversold zone on the monthly chart back in about 2014/2015. It started its huge rally and the big bankers and those few in the know captured a move that HAS NEVER SEEEN GOLD RETURN TO OVERSOLD ON THE MONTHLY CHART.
For me, price action and many of their teachings are smoke and mirrors BUT THIS IS 100% there in front of the eyes.

hier

Note

The USDX next resistance level is now Nov. 2022. Another thing they wont tell you.

hier

Note

Shock-horror. The USD is rallying again. Thank you to all the lazy tipsters who could not be bothered to pull the chart apart. You want money for subscriptions from traders, yet you are too lazy to look deep into a chart.