That channel shows up very clearly on the oil ETFS. See what happens next.
7878max
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Neutral is good. I feel oil won't do much but may make one last push to 51-52. Then it'll be an easy short. Getting a close over 40.20 on Monday is key and later closing over psychological $50.
I will say Thursday's price action did look wave like to the down side, but didn't have a convincing follow up. The price direction will be clear soon. It's been chop, so no point jumping in. Bias is bearish, but oil is bull until it's not.
IvanMadrazo
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@7878max, Totally agree, Excelent complement to my idea. I saw an harmonic pattern going to 51-52ish. So lets see price action till Thursday.
CyrusTrafford
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@7878max, Completely agree. I feel that the overall market sentiment is bearish for oil, and for it to make even one last push to 50.40, let alone 51/52, there will need to be a succession of good news. Personally speaking I think the only reason we saw the follow up was because of the USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday and the USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count on Friday showing big reductions in supply, but again I don't think that was enough to counter the damaging news that came out last week where in the month of July Saudi produced a record number of barrels for the year when they are driving the Opec reduction in production.
Either way I feel Mondays usually continue the trend from the previous Friday so I am long but will be looking to close out at the 49.32 resistance.
7878max
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@CyrusTrafford, I think they'll be able to drum up some news or recycle some old news. I feel news doesn't drive the markets, but it does time the market.
I agree with your Monday target.
CyrusTrafford
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@7878max, For other asset classes I would agree, but personally speaking with assets that can be deemed in times of crisis as a 'store of value' I feel their price is more suceptible to the news. But taking a much much longer-term view, I feel the bearish trends that we see in Oil is due to the technological progress we are seeing in general and in-turn with Electric Cars, Driverless Cars, political manifestos being made by countries like France and the UK that all cars will be electric from 2040. Whether this will happen or not who knows.
Really enjoy your ideas and look forward to speaking more.