Oil seems to be favouring wave theory of late with fib and technical analysis being secondary , its just completed a 5 wave pattern the big red candle confirms the end of this rally as its broken the neckline.....we should now see a corrective ABC pattern before it resumes its uptrend....... RSI is overbought......This is how I see it going....trade your own plan with care
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Neckline should get rejected, it won't go to a higher high.....This is where you short for A
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My humblest apologies , neckline is here, bit bleary eyed this morning....should get rejected
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I shorted on the retest of neckline...Take profit 46.90/47.00...there will be bulls waiting there for the B leg....
Price rejected beautifully of the neckline and we have formed a downward trendline.....it may bounce up a little when it hits support trendline in blue below but this time it will break it, probably on 2nd or 3rd attempt....it should be quite a quick fall after this...
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Now it wants to retest so Ive closed my short (breakeven )...there is a possibility it will now try a double top....but it wont go higher than the previous one and we will get an ABC...I will be shorting again after it fails to make a higher high...
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Lookd like ti might breakdown there..but support held...I think it might head for the golf course which is why im just watching for now...
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It didnt want to play golf...so i just shorted on retest of the blue line support line
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We need to see downtrend line hold for this to become an established downtrend..
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Stop loss activated....only 2% of account....
It will try a double top now and should fail to make a higher high.....this will be confirmation of WAVE A downward trend...I traded this today because sometimes you don't get a double top and miss out on big gains....
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Weve just had a big red reversal candle...this convinces me we are about to see the 3rd leg down....i mistakenly thought neckline was the top of 2nd corrective leg....this should break out of the channel very soon....
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Somebody else on Trading view says this is a 4th corrective wave down to 46.90........and we have'nt had wave 5 yet...this is the problem with counting waves.....we both agree on a correction to 46.90...so i'm not too bothered who is right or wrong on it...
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Symmeterical triangle, about to break, should be a big move down...
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Its a Doji day.....we will get a big move on Monday....our wave down should occur then...Oil is still stubbornly bullish...so I will now long at 46.90....I will short Monday if the chart patterns look bearish enough....