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atomantic
1 avr. 2020 20:44

Litany Against Fear 

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETFArca

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I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.
- Frank Herbert, Dune: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bene_Gesserit

Commentaire

Tracking updates to the 8/4 total death predictions from the covid19.healthdata.org

Looks like it's getting better:
04/04 - 93,531
04/05 - 81,766

This is much lower than the two day doubling we were doing in the US last week. Now we are at a 5 day doubling, so we are approaching the apex.

Rather than 250K-500K deaths as the trigger for the next down, watching the unemployment rate numbers...

Commentaire

Commentaires
IncaTernInvesting
Well, this didn't age too well... By the time you predicted the recovery (end 2023) we'll already have had the next crash IMO... crazy times!
atomantic
@IncaTernInvesting, haha. So few charts age well. Still holds a point though that even the worst feared bear market (of the whole stock market) comes back alive so there's no need to fear. I wasn't counting on the FED printing so MUCH money (over 20% of the entire money supply) and making rates 0, and new QE... they really fed the market back alive.
IncaTernInvesting
@atomantic, Exactly, nobody was expecting that much QE.. now the question just remains, what will they do next time the market turns bearish and a sell-off panic begins like in March 2020 - this time even more so, because everyone's started trading stocks and ETFs on their smartphones. Will they print 40% of the money supply? .. or not? Things could get wild...
atomantic
@IncaTernInvesting, and which companies beside MSTR and TESLA are already buying bitcoin into treasuries? I suspect if the market dips now, it will be bought back up pretty quick. Another 1.9T already in the money printer bed.
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