XAU/USD-GOLD - Medium-Long Term - BUY
XAU/USD-GOLD - Medium-Long Term Analysis:
XAU/USD-GOLD starter an Up-Trend in Dec 2015 with Cycle Wave a (pink) which lasted until Jul 2016.
Corrective Cycle b (pink) unfolded with a Complex WXY (red) Structure and lasted until Dec 2015.
Cycle Wave c (pink) started unfolding in Dec 2016 and according to the Time Cycles in Elliott Wave Analysis, it would take it the same time as Cycle Wave a (pink) to complete.
Within Cycle Wave c (pink), Intermediate (A) (light blue) unfolded with a 5 Waves Sequence which confirms that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold with a 5 Waves Sequence as well.
It took 3 Months for Intermediate (A) (light blue) to unfold and complete which tells us that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold within the same Time Frame.
Fundamentally speaking, Geo-Political events such as French Election, Post Brexit factors, Tensions at Countries Borders would trigger Intermediate (C) (light blue).
Intermediate (B) (light blue) Analysis:
XAU/USD-GOLD is unfolding the Corrective Structure in Intermediate (B) (light blue) with a Running Flat due to the fact that Minor B (red) surpassed the start of Minor A (red).
The Running Flat is our preferred scenario due to the fact that we see significant Support on the Red Trend-Line from Minor 4 (green) towards Minor A (red), at or around 1220.00 Levels.
Correlations with the Mining Sectors are confirming our view due to GDX about to finalize its Corrective Zig-Zag Structure.
We also see a Confirmation of the Running Flat Scenario due to the Hidden (Reversed) Bullish Divergence joining on the Volumes Bars.
In an Expanded Flat Scenario, anything below the end of Minor A (red) (1193.00 Levels) would confirm it and could have room to unfold towards 1200.00 Levels, the 161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors A & B (red).
We do not strongly believe this would be the case, although we are not excluding this Lower Probability Scenario, which would be considered as the Highest Probability Long Entry.
XAU/USD-GOLD is indeed trading within the Rage of the Trend-Lines Triangle Pattern (black dotted lines) and the upper Trend-Line is acting as a Strong Resistance.
We do see eventually Intermediate (C) (light blue) Breaching the upper Trend-Line and then gaining Support on it in order to unfold its Cycle.
Lower Triangle Trend-Line would be treated with seriousness in case of Price Action reaching it, although we do not believe strongly that we would see such Scenario.
XAU/USD-GOLD - Medium-Long Term - BUY
Positions and Limit Orders:
Aggressive Entry - 1220.00
SL - 1180.00
Moderate Entry - 1200.00
SL - 1160.00
Conservative Entry - 1180.00
SL - 1140.00
TP1 - 1325.00
TP2 - 1450.00
TP3 - 1620.00
* Safety Measures:
- When in the green, move SL to break-even or in profit.
- If Bearish Breach of the Red Trend-Line and If Conservative: wait for Flag Formation.
Many Pips Ahead!
XAU/USD-GOLD starter an Up-Trend in Dec 2015 with Cycle Wave a (pink) which lasted until Jul 2016.
Corrective Cycle b (pink) unfolded with a Complex WXY (red) Structure and lasted until Dec 2015.
Cycle Wave c (pink) started unfolding in Dec 2016 and according to the Time Cycles in Elliott Wave Analysis, it would take it the same time as Cycle Wave a (pink) to complete.
Within Cycle Wave c (pink), Intermediate (A) (light blue) unfolded with a 5 Waves Sequence which confirms that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold with a 5 Waves Sequence as well.
It took 3 Months for Intermediate (A) (light blue) to unfold and complete which tells us that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold within the same Time Frame.
Fundamentally speaking, Geo-Political events such as French Election, Post Brexit factors, Tensions at Countries Borders would trigger Intermediate (C) (light blue).
Intermediate (B) (light blue) Analysis:
XAU/USD-GOLD is unfolding the Corrective Structure in Intermediate (B) (light blue) with a Running Flat due to the fact that Minor B (red) surpassed the start of Minor A (red).
The Running Flat is our preferred scenario due to the fact that we see significant Support on the Red Trend-Line from Minor 4 (green) towards Minor A (red), at or around 1220.00 Levels.
Correlations with the Mining Sectors are confirming our view due to GDX about to finalize its Corrective Zig-Zag Structure.
We also see a Confirmation of the Running Flat Scenario due to the Hidden (Reversed) Bullish Divergence joining on the Volumes Bars.
In an Expanded Flat Scenario, anything below the end of Minor A (red) (1193.00 Levels) would confirm it and could have room to unfold towards 1200.00 Levels, the 161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors A & B (red).
We do not strongly believe this would be the case, although we are not excluding this Lower Probability Scenario, which would be considered as the Highest Probability Long Entry.
XAU/USD-GOLD is indeed trading within the Rage of the Trend-Lines Triangle Pattern (black dotted lines) and the upper Trend-Line is acting as a Strong Resistance.
We do see eventually Intermediate (C) (light blue) Breaching the upper Trend-Line and then gaining Support on it in order to unfold its Cycle.
Lower Triangle Trend-Line would be treated with seriousness in case of Price Action reaching it, although we do not believe strongly that we would see such Scenario.
XAU/USD-GOLD - Medium-Long Term - BUY
Positions and Limit Orders:
Aggressive Entry - 1220.00
SL - 1180.00
Moderate Entry - 1200.00
SL - 1160.00
Conservative Entry - 1180.00
SL - 1140.00
TP1 - 1325.00
TP2 - 1450.00
TP3 - 1620.00
* Safety Measures:
- When in the green, move SL to break-even or in profit.
- If Bearish Breach of the Red Trend-Line and If Conservative: wait for Flag Formation.
Many Pips Ahead!
Commentaire:
GDX:
Transaction en cours
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watching the triangle trend-line
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Trade was followed up with this post:
GOLD is becoming vulnerable, Bears could gain control.
GOLD is becoming vulnerable, Bears could gain control.
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