XAU/USD (Gold/USD) chart on a 144-minute timeframe
1. Wave Analysis and Elliott Wave Structure
The chart follows an Elliott Wave structure, identifying five distinct waves of a downtrend (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective pattern.
Notable Wave Points:
Wave 5 is projected to potentially end near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around 2,843.46, which often marks a strong potential reversal point.
Corrective Waves (i-iv): Following the primary downtrend, the upward movement seems to be structured in corrective waves (i, ii, iii, iv), suggesting a possible ABC or zigzag correction in progress.
2. Fibonacci Levels
1.618 Extension at 2,843.46: This level acts as a key Fibonacci extension for a potential diagonal Wave 5 completion, which could serve as a resistance level for price to react or reverse.
1.236 Extension at 2,803.48: This level has been marked with a "Volume Divergence by Wave 5" note, indicating that this might be a significant area of confluence where volume divergence could lead to a price reaction or reversal.
3. Wyckoff Phases and Price Levels
Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST): The chart labels an AR and ST in a possible Wyckoff Phase B, which usually indicates accumulation. This phase is characterized by testing support and resistance levels as the market builds a base.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: This is marked below, indicating a loss of momentum in the downward trend and possibly setting the stage for a reversal.
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: An upthrust is noted, which could act as a false breakout above resistance levels, signaling potential distribution if price fails to hold above it.
4. Volume and Divergence
Volume Divergence: Marked by Wave 5, this signals that while price may still be moving down, volume may not be supporting it as strongly, suggesting waning bearish momentum and potential for a reversal or a consolidation phase.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,790: This level is marked prominently as a psychological level where price might struggle to break above.
Recent Swing High (2,800 - 2,810): Located near the top boundary of the corrective range and could act as resistance for upward price movement.
Support Levels:
2,674.19 (0.272 Fibonacci retracement): This level acts as a potential support in the context of the current downtrend.
SOW in Phase B (Zone around 2,670 - 2,675): This area might act as strong support, especially if the SOW represents the lower boundary of an accumulation phase.
6. Dealing Range and Structural Patterns
The chart outlines a Dealing Range between recent swing highs and lows, suggesting a consolidation phase where price could oscillate before choosing a direction.
Potential Diagonal Structure: The ongoing correction appears to be forming a potential diagonal or channel. The price is expected to follow a controlled upward move but may encounter resistance near the top boundaries of the channel.
7. Price Objectives and Probable Movements
Upward Objective: Price might attempt to move towards 2,800 or higher, reaching a Phase B UT area as the corrective structure unfolds.
Downward Objective: If price fails to break above the noted resistance levels and Phase B patterns, it may revisit the support zone around 2,675 - 2,680 or lower.
8. Strategic Points and Trading Considerations
W Close (Wave Close): This label near the middle of the range could indicate the end of a wave and a potential consolidation or reversal area.
Stop Loss Considerations: Noted as "Good Stop Loss Till STD Hit," suggesting an area where a standard stop loss could be placed, possibly below the recent lows or swing points for managing risk.
No Money Protected Swing: A cautionary note near the support area suggests an awareness of risk in this region.
Summary of Key Takeaways
Price is currently in a corrective phase, possibly forming a complex wave structure after completing a primary downtrend.
Key resistance levels around 2,790 - 2,800 and support levels near 2,670 - 2,675 are crucial to watch.
The Wyckoff structure and volume divergence suggest a potential base-building phase, though a clear breakout of the range is needed to confirm the direction.
The chart follows an Elliott Wave structure, identifying five distinct waves of a downtrend (Wave 1 to Wave 5) followed by a corrective pattern.
Notable Wave Points:
Wave 5 is projected to potentially end near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level around 2,843.46, which often marks a strong potential reversal point.
Corrective Waves (i-iv): Following the primary downtrend, the upward movement seems to be structured in corrective waves (i, ii, iii, iv), suggesting a possible ABC or zigzag correction in progress.
2. Fibonacci Levels
1.618 Extension at 2,843.46: This level acts as a key Fibonacci extension for a potential diagonal Wave 5 completion, which could serve as a resistance level for price to react or reverse.
1.236 Extension at 2,803.48: This level has been marked with a "Volume Divergence by Wave 5" note, indicating that this might be a significant area of confluence where volume divergence could lead to a price reaction or reversal.
3. Wyckoff Phases and Price Levels
Automatic Reaction (AR) and Secondary Test (ST): The chart labels an AR and ST in a possible Wyckoff Phase B, which usually indicates accumulation. This phase is characterized by testing support and resistance levels as the market builds a base.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B: This is marked below, indicating a loss of momentum in the downward trend and possibly setting the stage for a reversal.
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: An upthrust is noted, which could act as a false breakout above resistance levels, signaling potential distribution if price fails to hold above it.
4. Volume and Divergence
Volume Divergence: Marked by Wave 5, this signals that while price may still be moving down, volume may not be supporting it as strongly, suggesting waning bearish momentum and potential for a reversal or a consolidation phase.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,790: This level is marked prominently as a psychological level where price might struggle to break above.
Recent Swing High (2,800 - 2,810): Located near the top boundary of the corrective range and could act as resistance for upward price movement.
Support Levels:
2,674.19 (0.272 Fibonacci retracement): This level acts as a potential support in the context of the current downtrend.
SOW in Phase B (Zone around 2,670 - 2,675): This area might act as strong support, especially if the SOW represents the lower boundary of an accumulation phase.
6. Dealing Range and Structural Patterns
The chart outlines a Dealing Range between recent swing highs and lows, suggesting a consolidation phase where price could oscillate before choosing a direction.
Potential Diagonal Structure: The ongoing correction appears to be forming a potential diagonal or channel. The price is expected to follow a controlled upward move but may encounter resistance near the top boundaries of the channel.
7. Price Objectives and Probable Movements
Upward Objective: Price might attempt to move towards 2,800 or higher, reaching a Phase B UT area as the corrective structure unfolds.
Downward Objective: If price fails to break above the noted resistance levels and Phase B patterns, it may revisit the support zone around 2,675 - 2,680 or lower.
8. Strategic Points and Trading Considerations
W Close (Wave Close): This label near the middle of the range could indicate the end of a wave and a potential consolidation or reversal area.
Stop Loss Considerations: Noted as "Good Stop Loss Till STD Hit," suggesting an area where a standard stop loss could be placed, possibly below the recent lows or swing points for managing risk.
No Money Protected Swing: A cautionary note near the support area suggests an awareness of risk in this region.
Summary of Key Takeaways
Price is currently in a corrective phase, possibly forming a complex wave structure after completing a primary downtrend.
Key resistance levels around 2,790 - 2,800 and support levels near 2,670 - 2,675 are crucial to watch.
The Wyckoff structure and volume divergence suggest a potential base-building phase, though a clear breakout of the range is needed to confirm the direction.
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Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.