J'ai remarqué la formation d'une vague de Wolfe dans la dernière partie de la correction haussière que nous avons connue ces dernières semaines.
De l'analyse des plus grandes échelles de temps sur les vagues d'Elliot pour déterminer dans quelle phase nous nous trouvons, j'ai pu déduire que cette vague de Wolfe indique donc que nous allons, plus tôt que tard, reprendre la tendance de l'échelle de temps plus longue, qui est baissière, mettant ainsi fin à la correction passée, comme la partie C de la figure A-B-C de la vague d'Elliot mensuelle haussière (ligne jaune en pointillés de plus grande épaisseur se trouvant au dessus du prix sur le graphique), qui a commencé en 1971.
Je pense que cela s'explique de soi-même si l'on comprend les concepts que j'ai évoqué ici, et comme toute l'analyse technique que j'ai utilisée pour arriver à cette conclusion se trouve dans le graphique, je vais donc synthétiser.
Je vais d'abord short swing vers 1822 comme support (également la cible de la vague de Wolfe et, par coïncidence, un support qui a montré de la résilience auparavant) et voir à partir de là si nous suivons toujours le modèle fractal que j'ai dessiné.
Ce n’est pas un conseil d’investissement, juste un partage éducatif de ma stratégie, mon opinion et analyse, ici seulement TA. La responsabilité reste individuelle sur la décision et son exécution.
Merci pour ton attention !
Si tu aimes ce que je propose et pour me motiver à continuer, n'hésites pas à liker et partager ! Ce serait super ! merci !
Greetings !
I noticed the formation of a Wolfe Wave in the last part of the bullish correction we had these past weeks.
Through the analysis of the largest time scales on the Elliot waves in which we find ourselves, we can deduce that this Wolfe wave indicates that we will, sooner than later, resume the trend from the longer timeframe, which is bearish, therefore ending the past correction, as the C part of the A-B-C figure in the monthly bullish Elliot Wave, that started back in 1971.
I think this is self-explanatory when one understands the concepts I recalled here and as everything TA I used to get to this conclusion is within the chart so I won't make it too long.
I'll Short swing towards 1822 as a support first (also the target of the Wolfe Wave and coincidentally, a support that showed resilience pastly) and see from there if we still follow the fractal pattern I drew. Entry: 1865-1860
This is not an investment advice, just an educative sharing of my strategy, my opinion and analysis, here only TA. The responsibility remains individual on the decision and its execution.
Thank you for your attention !
If you like what I propose and to motivate me to continue, do not hesitate to like and share! That would be great! Thank you!
Trade fermée manuellement
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Closed the trade for half the movement as of now as I spotted a Bullish Wolfe wave that started today at 11:10 am and have as short term target 1864 /ounce but I doubt gold has the strenght to reach that level again but it could, but after only to reject from that level following the fractal pattern identified above.. Anyway, I'll secure the profits and wait & observe for now, thanks !
Commentaire
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I'll reopen a position when I'd have estimated that the current correction is over..
Macro side: DXY also climbs as US yields are with quantitative tightening against again and again confirmed inflation (which threats to evolve into an hyper one) and a strong enough US economy (to sustain QT) compared to generally in EU, showing more weakness thus making higher the risk of a recession for the latter (which end up helping DXY too + there's no better cash alternative though it's still fiat money and with rising yields, it could be that it's not the best place to get value from, but cash detained in reference currency will always be king when buying discounted things during recessions or periods of uncertainty...).. Also, I logically speculate that bankers, institutions can't "print" as much money as before so they need to sell their reserves which happen to be in gold for the major part (with US as 1st) to answer their needs and maintain their activity (now even involving financing a War...)..
Nrik07
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The speculative part shall happen at some point if there's a black swan requiring their reaction or just that they don't solve the current shortages & crisis and it gets worse creating new unexpected events, as they couldn't risk hyper inflation too at that point if inflation doesn't cool by then..
Nrik07
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If the scenario of hyper inflation in the US or elsewhere arises probabilistically, not so far but not impossible aswell, holding our value in the used currency where that happens could be later proven to be a terrible idea, as it is already with normal inflation, but that would end up eating more of our real purchasing power aswell... This could be the trigger for a global crisis and shall be avoided as the US dollar is used around the world as the best medium of exchanges, store of value, ..., as a reference currency and so, there's currently still no better fiat alternative.. As so, I'm thinking of the concept that was used post-2008 crisis to save the big-banks to avoid the spread of the financial crisis into a global major economic one: "Too big to fail", and, that was also later applied on European States that were heavily damaged by its consequences.. I'm thinking there could be a world where they try to apply the concept to a reference currency and so, think of a way to save it, no matter the cost, accomplishing that..
How ? as this could also play in favor of the speculation mentioned before... basically, as they can't print but got to react, what can they do ? higher taxes (higher risk of recession and could not solve the issue) ? or rates, also known as Quantitative tightening (QT) (higher risk of recession from a deflationary risk if the economy is already fragilised at the time of the usage) ? Or, sell parts of their reserves, trying to compensate for the demand/supply imbalance, to act on their own currency (less risky in the short term but reserves are fundamental, still having their uses [for instance, stability], therefore needs to be replaced) ? This kind of questions and others, is also what makes what is known as "forward guidance", as a strategy to direct markets without compromising growth and stability in the long term, as tricky..
I think that's how, but I can always be proven wrong with alternative solutions such as mixed ones, anyway, we shall witness how it will go foward and strategize accordingly...
Also, I logically speculate that bankers, institutions can't "print" as much money as before so they need to sell their reserves which happen to be in gold for the major part (with US as 1st) to answer their needs and maintain their activity (now even involving financing a War...)..