We have an important ECB meeting today. Probably this is one of the last chance for Draghi to weaken the Euro before the ECB starts its rate hiking process. The strengthening dollar will push gold down into its final correction before gold's multi year basing pattern breaks to the upside this summer.
The triangle broke down and we are testing the the lower line of the range. Today it's time to break it down finally. The target prices measured from the patterns: Triangle's target price: 1268,5 Range' target price : 1261,3
I still think there is a good chance we will test the important support at 1248-1254. The 38,2% Fibo retracement of the previous rally is also at 1246, and there is the 200 MA too. So our levels to watch : 1268,5-1261,3-1254-1248. If this drop becomes a serious decline printing an intermediate low we might drop to 1230 testing the 100 MA and the blue trendline.
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Draghi is not wasting his time. Eurusd broke down
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And DXY is bouncing
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They will run the stops in gold
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Swing high in place today. I think the intermediate cycle topped yesterday. The bad news I was waiting for a daily cycle low and we broke higher. The good news I was waiting for a daily cycle low and we are going to have an intermediate low in the following 4 weeks.
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Trendline is broken. This is the trendline break where you can short the breakdown.
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All the Kim Goldbugs bought today’s rally.
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We are going to print the famous 20$ daily candle today. Daily minimum close. Drop till close. Daily close at 1292-94$.
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I'm going to post a new idea regarding the possible targets. We started the intermediate decline.
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The ECB is stepping in. Some was waiting for a miracle I was waiting for the E.C.B. Bravissimo Mr Draghi.
Trade fermée manuellement
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Chanceis high gold bottomed at 1268. Out of every gold short.
I hope so. I have a small DGLD position that is way under water and this down day isn't reflecting enough into DGLD.
mashru
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Hi Arpi,
Been difficult to try and go against the bull trend in gold, but I think the hourly surely looks like a H&S (so does the 4 hourly) and the daily has printed an inverted hammer - all look very bearish. Alongwith that, you suddenly see the airwaves filled with the bulls who have been awakened off late and all that tells me that Gold has to fall.
I guess bulls view charts with their coloured lenses (as do bears) and so all the bulls will try and make sense of the charts in a bullish way, but the 1hr, 4hr and daily charts are surely looking bearish. You are the expert in wavecounts, and if you are saying we have seen an intermediate cycle topped on friday, it does look bad for gold for the next few weeks.
P.S. : Gold has also printed 4 green bars on the monthly - something it rarely does, and when it does do that the 5th Red bar is quite bad! Seems to concur with your analysis, so I am planning to short gold now.
Any takes on a SL level? 1365 is too far away, and dont know whether i want to wait that long...
chartwatchers
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@mashru, 1327.4
If we break above that level we are going to test 1365-1375
mashru
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@chartwatchers, Thanks as always Arpi! And thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas!
lapin_eliott
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why a good news and a bad news, recently gold and stocks have moved up together, which is technically against the usual good news <-> no safe haven <-> stock up and gold down, therefore even without news we vould have stock AND gold falling together too after all
lord_kinbote
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Morning. How has is been going? The trade tells me much of the same.
chartwatchers
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@lord_kinbote, Hey Lord. I think the intermediate cycle topped yesterday. After all we are on week 24. Red monthly candle is coming.
It was a nice rally for 24 weeks but just like everything this will be over soon, too. The next intermediate cycle is the one where we are going to break the consolidation pattern. I was a bit early , so we will sit this out.
lord_kinbote
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@chartwatchers, sounds logical. Good luck and looking forward to the analysis.
lucamodena
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What do you think about a retracement to 1210 $?
Cornhub
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I like your analysis Mr, but the thing is today the pattern is called WTF pattern, and everyone was expecting a retrace before the heads up lol