Signal Projection Explorer

18 avr.

Many traders focus on building full strategies right away — combining entries, exits, stop-losses, take-profits, filters, and position sizing.

But there is a problem with that approach:

👉 It often hides the true quality of the underlying signal.

When multiple layers are added on top (risk management, opposite signals, overlays), it becomes very difficult to answer a simple but critical question:

“Is this signal actually good on its own?”

🎯 What this indicator does

This tool is designed to analyze raw signals in isolation.

Instead of jumping straight into a full strategy, it lets you explore:

👉 What tends to happen to the price after a signal occurs?

🔍 How it works

• The script detects signals in historical data (Golder Cross in this script).
• It collects all occurrences of those signals.
• For each signal, it tracks price performance over the next X bars.
• It then builds a distribution of outcomes and projects it forward from the current price.

📈 What you see on the chart

Instead of a single prediction, you get a range of historical outcomes:

• 🔴 Worst P&L → maximum adverse move after the signal
• 🟢 Best P&L → best-case outcome
• 🔵 25th percentile → lower bound of typical outcomes
• 🟠 75th percentile → upper bound of typical outcomes
• ⚪ Mean → average path
• 🟣 Median → typical (robust) path

All of these are projected forward from the current price, giving you an intuitive view of possible scenarios.

📋 Stats Table

The table summarizes key metrics at the selected projection horizon:

• Number of signals used
• Final P&L for each line (Worst / Best / Percentiles / Mean / Median)
• Distribution metrics like Spread and IQR

This gives you a quick read on:

• Expected return
• Risk range
• Outcome dispersion

🧠 Why this matters

This tool helps you:

• Separate signal quality from strategy complexity
• Understand risk vs reward before adding filters
• Avoid overfitting strategies on weak signals
• Build better systems from strong foundations

⚠️ Important note

This is not a prediction tool.
It shows historical tendencies based on past signals — not guaranteed future outcomes.

Always use it as:

• a research tool
• a context layer
• not a standalone trading system

🚀 Final thought

Before optimizing entries, exits, and risk…

👉 Make sure your signal itself has an edge.

This indicator helps you see that clearly.

24 avr.

Notes de version

fix for replay bars