Risk Reward Scenario Analyzer - Entry Stop Target Visualizer

Overview

Risk Reward Scenario Analyzer is an interactive trade-planning and scenario-research indicator for manually defined Entry, Stop and Target levels.

The script does not generate a market-direction signal, select an entry, recommend a stop, or predict a target. The user defines the trade geometry. The indicator then measures the planned reward-to-risk multiple, stress-tests that multiple against entry-price drift, and audits whether the Stop or Target was reached first under explicit confirmed-OHLC rules.

The implementation is centered on three connected research tasks:

1. Entry execution drift testing
2. Confirmed-OHLC first-touch auditing
3. Consecutive testing of multiple hypothetical scenarios

This combination is the main reason the script exists as a separate publication rather than as a basic risk/reward box.

Interactive trade plan

The user places four interactive values directly on the chart:

- Entry
- Anchor time
- Stop loss
- Take-profit target

The Entry and Anchor form one interactive chart point. Stop and Target can be repositioned independently.

Direction can be selected manually or derived from the geometry:

Long:
Stop < Entry < Target

Short:
Target < Entry < Stop

Invalid geometry remains visible for correction and is not processed as a valid scenario.

Two activation methods are available:

Assume filled at anchor:
The research scenario begins from the selected anchor.

Wait for entry touch:
The scenario activates only after a confirmed chart bar trades through the selected Entry. Exit evaluation begins on the following confirmed bar because chart OHLC cannot prove whether the Entry, Stop or Target occurred first inside the activation bar.

Planned R multiple

The basic calculations are:

Planned risk distance =
Absolute value of Entry - Stop

Planned reward distance =
Absolute value of Target - Entry

Gross R multiple =
Planned reward distance / Planned risk distance

The displayed gross break-even win rate is:

100 / (1 + Gross R)

This is a mathematical break-even threshold derived from the selected reward-to-risk relationship. It is not a prediction of the strategy's actual win rate.

Entry execution stress test

A planned R multiple can deteriorate when the actual entry is less favorable than the intended entry.

The Entry execution tolerance model keeps the selected Stop and Target fixed, then shifts the Entry in both directions.

The tolerance distance can be defined as:

- A percentage of the planned risk distance
- A number of minimum ticks
- A fraction of ATR captured at the anchor

For a Long scenario, the adverse entry is above the planned Entry and the favorable entry is below it.

For a Short scenario, the adverse entry is below the planned Entry and the favorable entry is above it.

The script calculates:

- Adverse entry R
- Favorable entry R
- Retained R percentage
- Low, Moderate or High R erosion

Retained R is calculated as:

Adverse entry R / Planned R x 100

This section is a sensitivity test. It does not predict spread, slippage or the price at which an order will actually be filled.

Confirmed-OHLC first-touch audit

After activation, the script audits whether the Stop or Target was reached first.

Terminal outcomes are evaluated from confirmed chart bars. The activation bar is excluded from exit evaluation because its intrabar sequence is unavailable from OHLC data alone.

The outcome states are:

- Target
- Stop
- Ambiguous
- Expired
- Active
- Waiting for entry
- Invalid

Gap opens are evaluated at the opening price before the normal high-low touch logic is applied.

If a confirmed bar touches both Stop and Target and the opening price did not already resolve the sequence, chart OHLC cannot reveal which level occurred first.

The default same-bar policy is:

Mark ambiguous

Two optional research assumptions are also available:

- Assume stop first
- Assume target first

These alternatives are explicit user-selected assumptions. They are not presented as reconstructed intrabar facts.

The scenario becomes Expired when the selected research horizon ends before Stop or Target is resolved.

Standard candlestick charts are recommended. Heikin Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Line Break, Point and Figure and other non-standard chart types can contain synthetic OHLC values. The panel identifies non-standard chart data as synthetic.

MFE, MAE and live progress

After activation, the script tracks:

- Maximum favorable excursion in R
- Maximum adverse excursion in R
- Current or terminal R
- Elapsed bars
- Research horizon

The activation bar is excluded from MFE and MAE for the same intrabar-order reason used by the first-touch audit.

Current R can change while the realtime bar is open. Target, Stop, Ambiguous and Expired outcomes are finalized from confirmed bars.

Risk budget, quantity and execution costs

The risk budget can be entered as:

- A percentage of account size
- A fixed cash amount

Cash conversion can use the symbol's point value or a manually entered point value.

Optional execution-cost assumptions include:

- Round-trip cash cost per unit
- Slippage in minimum ticks per side

Modeled loss per unit is:

Price risk per unit + Modeled execution costs

Modeled win per unit is:

Price reward per unit - Modeled execution costs

Raw quantity is:

Risk budget / Modeled loss per unit

The result is rounded down to the selected quantity step.

When costs are enabled, the script also calculates:

- Cost-adjusted R
- Cost-adjusted break-even win rate
- Modeled cash loss at Stop
- Modeled cash result at Target

The modeled quantity is an arithmetic research result. It is not a recommended, optimal or safe order size.

Point values, contract multipliers, lot conventions, commissions and margin requirements can differ by broker, exchange and instrument. Users must verify the applicable contract specifications independently.

Visual workflow

The main chart display includes:

- Reward area
- Risk area
- Entry execution tolerance band
- Entry, Stop and Target references
- Live or terminal R marker
- Compact scenario readout

The readout is intentionally limited to the information most relevant to reviewing the current scenario:

- Direction and state
- Planned or cost-adjusted R
- Mathematical break-even threshold
- Adverse entry R and retained R
- Risk budget and modeled quantity
- Modeled Stop and Target cash outcomes
- Current or terminal R
- Elapsed bars and research horizon

After a scenario resolves, the visual workflow can:

- Keep the full scenario
- Compact the result
- Clear completed visuals

Moving Entry, Anchor, Stop or Target causes Pine to recalculate the scenario from the selected inputs. A completely new placement can be started with TradingView's Reset points command.

This behavior is intended for rapid comparison of several user-defined trade hypotheses. Previous scenarios are not stored as a permanent trade journal.

Alerts

The script provides factual alert conditions for:

- Scenario activation
- Target reached first
- Stop reached first
- Ambiguous same-bar outcome
- Research horizon expiry

Users must create the desired alerts separately through TradingView's alert dialog.

Calculation behavior

The script does not use future data, lookahead or higher-timeframe data requests.

Changing an interactive point or any other input causes the available chart history to be recalculated using the new settings. This is normal input-driven Pine behavior and should not be interpreted as a persistent record of an earlier scenario.

Limitations

- Entry, Stop, Target, account values and cost assumptions are entered manually.
- The script does not identify or recommend a trade setup.
- It does not predict market direction.
- It does not read brokerage positions or Trading Panel account data.
- It does not place, modify or close orders.
- It does not reconstruct tick-by-tick movement inside historical bars.
- Same-bar Stop and Target order is unknowable from OHLC alone.
- Gap handling at the bar open is a research model, not a guaranteed fill model.
- Actual fees, spread, slippage and execution prices can differ from the entered assumptions.
- Point value can differ by broker, exchange and contract specification.
- Currency conversion, taxes, funding changes and margin requirements are not calculated automatically.
- Non-standard chart prices may not represent executable market prices.
- Results depend on the accuracy of the user's inputs.
- The script is a scenario visualization and research tool, not financial advice or a trade recommendation.