Daily Range Exhaustion - ADR Probability Map

An intraday trader spends the whole session asking one question without ever measuring it: is there still room left in this move, or is the day already finished. Daily Range Exhaustion measures it.

The script records the completed range of every past day on the symbol you have open, and uses that sample to answer four things about the day in progress.

HOW MUCH OF THE DAY IS SPENT

Today's range is compared against the average daily range of the last 5, 10 or 20 days. The panel shows the result as a percentage. At 40 percent the day still has room in either direction. At 110 percent the day has already delivered more than an ordinary day and every further extension is, statistically, an outlier rather than the base case. The chart background tints once 100 percent is passed.

WHERE A FULL DAY COULD STILL REACH

Two levels are drawn:

Upside projection, today's low plus the average daily range. This is the highest point a statistically ordinary day could still print without becoming unusual.

Downside projection, today's high minus the average daily range.

Both compress as the session develops. Early in the day they sit far apart. By the afternoon they have squeezed toward price, and the distance left to each one is exactly the room the day has left. The shaded areas between price and each projection are that remaining room, made visible.

THE ODDS OF EXTENDING ANYWAY

Ranges are not a hard ceiling, so the panel reports how often the ceiling actually broke. Three lines show the share of past days whose range exceeded 100, 125 and 150 percent of the current average. On most liquid instruments roughly a quarter to a third of days exceed 100 percent, but far fewer reach 150 percent. Those numbers are the honest context for the exhaustion reading: they tell you whether a stretched day is rare or routine on this particular symbol.

WEEKDAY BREAKDOWN

A single average across all days hides a real effect. Many instruments have a quiet Monday and a violent Thursday, and judging Monday against a blended average will make it look exhausted when it is behaving normally. The panel breaks the sample down by weekday, shows the average range of each one, and expresses it as a percentage of the overall average. Today's weekday is highlighted.

HOW TO USE IT

As a filter on entries. Taking a fresh breakout when the day has already spent 120 percent of its average range is a different trade from taking the same breakout at 45 percent. The setup may be identical, the room available is not.

As target context. If the upside projection is 12 points away and your target is 30 points, the day would have to become a statistical outlier for that target to fill.

As mean reversion context. A day that hits the projection level and stalls has, by definition, reached the edge of its usual distribution.

As session planning. Check the weekday row before the session opens to know whether to expect a wide day or a narrow one.

NOTES ON THE DATA

The sample is built from the chart itself, so it needs history loaded. The panel shows a Building sample message and stays hidden until the minimum day count is reached, rather than showing statistics based on six observations.

Only intraday timeframes are supported. On a daily chart or higher the concept has no meaning, and the panel says so instead of printing misleading numbers.

Older days are dropped once the sample cap is reached, so the statistics follow the current volatility regime instead of averaging in a market from two years ago.

Days are bounded by the exchange session of the symbol. On instruments that trade nearly around the clock the day boundary is a convention, not a natural break, which slightly inflates the ranges of days that straddle a rollover.

WHAT IT IS NOT

There are no entry or exit signals here, and none are planned. This is context. A completed range is not a reversal signal, and an unfinished range is not a reason to expect continuation. Trends routinely spend two or three average ranges in a session, which is precisely why the extension odds are shown rather than hidden.

This is an analysis tool, not financial advice. Past distributions do not guarantee future ones. Use it alongside your own risk management and position sizing.