The Italian political scene
seems to be calming down
with some kind of agreement
between 5-Star movement and
the Democratic Party.
Traders would very much like to
see the cautious DP back in power
as they would likely defuse the tension
between Italy and Brussles.
We like continued upside today, with the
US being away for Labour Day.
Buy intraday dips ahead of...
European Indices trading lower across the board,
with the FTSE MIB under-performing due to
Banking sector as BTP yields rise sharply. Italy
Dep PM Salvini is calling for a General Election
Sell on pullbacks towards the most recent support
zone, looking for 19600s.
The risk of a battle between the EU and Italy is looming after the EU signalled the
launch of an EDP on the deviation of Italy’s 2018 fiscal figures from the EU targets.
Statements from the Italian government suggest Italy will not stand down.
Sell at market, since we have broken through the continuation point!
Italian markets came under strong pressure yesterday as
Bloomberg ran a story that the EUCommission June 5th will
consider a disciplinary procedure over Italy’s failure to rein
in debt. An Excessive deficit Procedure is a lengthy process,
but if the story is true, the standoff between Italy and the
EU that we had expected in the autumn could start much
Bloomberg reported that Italian PM Conte accused Salvini of bringing down the coalition government in an end to a bad week for the Italian bond market. Meanwhile ramped up tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment.
Technically we have dropped through our first target and selling continues. We favour continuation breaks...
Italy's stock market is the weakling in Europe due to the risk-off sentiment and on the back of the downward revision of growth
in 2019 from 0.2% to 0.1% and a deficit in 2020 above 3%. The 10Y spread to Germany widened.
We have broken through a key daily sup/res level.
Momentum is negative.
Consider adding shorts on a pullback.
Our bias on the Italian stock market continues to be short. The deadline for presenting an acceaptable budget to the EU is Oct. 15th, and no progress has been made. Italy still remains on an opposing foot and thus the markets are maintaining the pressure on Italian stocks.