EW analysis - A fallen (Dow-) star raises it‘s head

14 févr. 2023

I like like the thought that after the end of the corona pandemic some stocks of the „old economy „ may catch up. One of those fallen stars may be Alcoa. I expect double 1-2 move unfold to the upside. The second wave two has ended or is about to end soon.

In the expectation of an ending wave two I built a small long position after the sharp rebound from yesterday‘s low. Unfortunately there was no real follow through and the volume on the daily candle stayed bellow average.

So I‘m now working the idea that ist was the end of an extended wave 3 of C of 2. After a new low in wave 5 a strong move to the upside should ensue that will lead into the 70 region.

My short term looks as Follower.

16 févr. 2023

Note

The correction turns out to be more complex.

26 févr. 2023

Note

Although the correction went a little bit lower than I thought due to the general market weakness I think this count is still valid and my prefered one.

But I have two alternative counts for you, that would allow for further losses.

Further losses would not harm the long to medium term outlook that sees prices doubling to above 100 USD.