Adobe (ADBE): Patience Pays Off After 35% Rally

Following our last analysis of Adobe (ADBE), the stock saw a 35% rally from June to September, only to flush back to our preferred range—a clear reminder of the importance of considering the bigger picture rather than chasing every setup. Six months later, Adobe now trades below our initial analysis levels, reinforcing the value of patience. Currently, the stock has tagged the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, showing a promising reaction. However, reclaiming and flipping the key resistance at $446 with strong momentum is crucial. If this level is reclaimed, we will look for a pullback to bid at this key zone.

Should Adobe fail to reclaim $446, another drop toward the $386–$350 support range becomes highly likely. As such, we are not rushing into long positions for the sake of being positioned.

On the fundamental side, Adobe faces critical challenges as investors question its ability to monetize new AI features and fend off competition from emerging startups. These factors will play a key role in shaping the company’s outlook. For now, we remain patient, watching for clear rejections or reclaiming of the key levels.

Key Resistance: $446
Key Support: $386–$350