APTOS: Long or Short?

7 déc. 2022

Hello everyone, we are a new derivative exchange Sunflower Corporation. Our aim is to bring value to traders and make trading process more conscious. We would like to explain and demonstrate the project in terms of the product, its competitive advantages, the team, tokenomics, and prospects.

You’ll gain a better understanding of the essence and content of what you are trading, and you’ll look at the token from a different angle, from the fundamental approach and metrics, which will allow you to enter the project more consciously and profitably.

So the first project we would to tell you about is APTOS - APT token

What is the project?
Layer 1 blockchain running on the Proof-of-Stake consensus system. It is based on the Move language.

Blockchain
Aptos is powered by its own blockchain. Diem was the project's original name, and was developed entirely within Meta (ex. Facebook ). Diem was created in 2019 by the team in charge of developing blockchain technology within what was then Facebook . Diem-Aptos was tested in closed mode from 2019 to spring 2022. The open test phase began in the spring 2022, and in October 2022, the APT token was released, and the blockchain began operation on the main network.

PRODUCT PART
Key mechanics:

• Its own language (Move) for development
  
• Batch processing of transactions
  
• Parallel execution of transactions
  
• Sharding
  
• Smart contract types definition on the blockchain level
  
• Availability of mem-pool transactions
  

Strengths:

• Fast operation due to mem-pool transactions
  
• High TPS through parallel execution and batch processing
  
• Ease of Dapps development through specific types of smart contracts and proprietary programming language
  

BUSINESS PART

How does the product make money?
Currently, the only way for the product to profit is through the sale or further investment of native APT token into Aptos ecosystem and other prospective projects.
Aptos Foundation tokens total 165 million, valued at ~ 750 million USD according to current estimates.
Among them, 5 million tokens were initially available, equivalent to approximately $23 million USD by current estimates.
The remaining 160 million tokens have a 120-month linear unlock: ~ 1.3 million APT tokens per month and ~ 6.3 million USD at the current token valuation
In other words, at a monthly APT token price of ~ 4-5 USD, the APT team will receive ~ 5-6 million USD for investment and venture activities.

How can a product make money in the long run?
If Aptos' technical solutions can be implemented, Aptos will be able to sell its infrastructure to financial and technical firms for use in implementing their products or developing joint products. Aptos' declared TPS is ~ 130k transactions, with a target of ~ 160k transactions; in comparison, Ethereum's average TPS is ~ 10 transactions per second, Arbitrum's is ~ 2 transactions per second, and Solana's is ~ 4k transactions per second.

Team
The founders and main developers are former Meta employees who worked on the predecessor of Aptos, Diem/

Funds and investors
Aptos had 3 rounds of investments, total amount of fees ~400m USD
Here are the main investors:

• Binance
  
• ParaFi Capital
  
• OAK
  
• Circle Ventures
  
• Apollo
  
• Bixin Ventures
  
• Franklin Templeton Investments
  
• Jump Crypto
  
• Tess Ventures
  
• Superskrypt
  

Tokenomics
1. Total amount of tokens: 1b APT
2. Current circulation: 130m APT (125m APT for the community and 5m APT for Foundation)
3. Current market capitalization: 610m USD
4. Total market capitalization: 4.6b USD
5. Token unlocks:
a) 160m APT tokensf or Foundation - monthly for 10 years, ~1. 3m APT monthly
b) 385 217 358 APT tokens for the community - monthly for 10 years, ~3.2m APT monthly
c) 324 782 640 APT tokens for key participants and investors - blocking the first 12 months, once every 2 months from 13 to 18
months ~6.7m APT, monthly from 19 to 48 months ~6.7m APT

At the moment, users are not charged for transactions, so validators and stackers are incentivized with APT tokens for the community. This means that by the time the project's initial investors and key players unlock tokens, validators and stackers will have a higher aggregate volume than investors. The situation will level out over time. It is worth noting that, as retail investors and traders follow the trend, APT tokens of validators and stackers will be sold rather than accumulated during a bear market.

CONCLUSION

What to expect in the future?
Aptos is a long-term project. If no technical risks occur, the project will be among the top 10/20 CMCs in terms of capitalization in the long run. Given the amount of money raised by the Aptos team and the monthly unlocks, the project should easily survive the current crypto-winter and grow to be one of the best projects in the industry. We should understand that the first year of Aptos is a year of ecosystem formation, development, and expansion. The same thing happened to Solana and Near.

Our output: long or short
In the short term, given the advantage of retail investors and the availability of futures markets on all of the top exchanges:
On a falling market - short, because the project lacks the critical mass to deviate from the market trend.
On an ascending and positive market - long, capitalization is small, circulation is a little over 10%, Aptos can show very good growth.

In the long term, it is long. The project includes a buffer for quiet work in the next 2-3 years. For example, Near and Solana's resources have been significantly reduced, and the protocols' weaknesses can now be seen.

In any case, your trading strategy, investment and trading planning horizon are significant to make decisions and these decisions are up to you! Thanks for reading this idea and the next one will be about Solana so follow us and get more knowledge about crypto projects.