$APVO Nov. 05th 2020 Long day trading Opportunity

5 nov. 2020

wait for a pullback and consolidation with APVO
$14.42 to $14.5 Entry point for APVO
SL $13.99
1st Take Profit point 50% holding at $18
2nd Take Profit point at $23.90 (3rd Squeeze, or the last potential squeeze) if APVO $14 not violated and Consolidate above vwap


if the 3rd breakout at $19.46 occur with APVO, we could see another 23-24% Upside Squeeze from the $19.46 breakout point


1st squeeze had a 23% upside from 9.15
2nd squeeze had a 23% upside from 11.65
3rd squeeze will have another 23% upside from the 19.42 Breakout

PS:

tomorrow 10:40 AM and beyond APVO has to hold above $16.28 for any hope of $19.32 breakout

key level $16.5 for hope of 19.32 breakout

and if $14 get violated downwards might signal an authentic backside

5 nov. 2020

Note

I was right about the entry point the stop-loss point and as well the take profit point, the day before I spent many hours analyzing the chart and set out my game plan the day before...

but today I missed my entry, I thought that it would go lower
Many people have anticipated this massive squeeze move
I thought that it would go lower
I thought it was too early in the morning for the massive squeeze to occur
And I did not follow the plan that I set, I was cocky when I did capture the first upward movement.

*Today is a major lesson for me*

It is okay to miss the opportunityIt is okay if you're wrong
IT IS absolutely NOT okay for me to FOMO and get emotional when an opportunity slipped out of my hand. - turning a missed opportunity into a disastrous MASSIVE LOST  on the day.

It was totally my fault, I knew I missed the upside, I didn't make the entry when I had the opportunity... and I got bitter, trying to recoup an apportion of the sum of the lost opportunity.

and I Chase a Breakout, it did break out at the $25 mark but it was struggling to continue breaking out, I saw that the Breakout was struggling, but my greed set in, and I didn't respect my stop loss, 

this has cost me 2500USD

6 nov. 2020

Note

I messed up big-time today,
I did anticipate and planned out the emotional expectations the night before that there will be a massive squeeze, and sure it did...

But I wasn't expecting that it would do the 19.60 breakout massive squeeze so soon
that really throw me off guard and shattered my composure...

Stunned...immobility
doubts kicked in...fear piled up,
scared to ride the 19.60 breakout after already reached 22

from 21.66 shoot up another 10% upside to 24.5

Anger kicked in, I KNEW it's going to make the 23-24% upside from the 19.5 breakout point...but doubts and fear prevented me from taking action.

my mind was shouting...fk now it is really Done..
that is it. it is finished, We Missed it.

Then it got me...

from $22 shoot up another 12% upside to $25

Oh my fucking god...we missed it again?!?!

okay, okay its a new break out now $25 Break out!!

FOMO kicked in

what... halted ! ? okay.. cancel the order, and see if the 25 breakout hold.

unhalted,

okay 25 did hold.. buy now!! 25.12
it is going up now?

yes! 25.8 yes. 26!! come on! "27.5 I'm out"

fuck... should have sold it 26

please please 25 hold!? okay...going up again?
"26 I'm out"

come on !! 26... no?

24.75 omg 25 didn't hold... come on come on

25.23 ok ok...its back up

GREED KICKED IN

25.63 Come on... (25.5 I'm out!!) come on..

24.82, fuck 25 broke again....

okay... fine (25 get me out)

22.86

RIP ...................................................................................

Okay it's a massive washout...you going to rise upward again?
if it breaks 22.5 I'm really out!
okay, its a low flow, high reward high-risk level (measuring from $22.5 okay I will set stop-loss order 21.22


stopped out

2000USD LOSS

6 nov. 2020

Note

double bottom...
yeah...double bottom...I was AFK when the double bottom...happened

and I was thinking wrongfully that it would go lower, or at least from that
14.99 double bottom area going towards 17.95 then come back down again to the 14 dollar area Low of Day

but I was Wrong...

from that double bottom...14.99 rise to 18, and it never came back down
:(
My Limit buy order at 14 did not make an entry...

I thought it would have to break the double bottom to Signal the weakness in order to trap more short sellers, then consolidate
again for the mid-day massive squeeze movement...

but I was Wrong it never reached back below 15

*when I caught the first upward movement from 14 to 17.5
I grew overconfident and maybe a little cocky that my predicted low $14 was right on point!

I grew overconfident with the thought that it would have to break down the double bottom to Signal the weakness in order to trap more short sellers, consolidate again for the mid-day massive squeeze movement...

overconfidence caused from a correct washout price point prediction.
leading with the thought that it would have to break down the double bottom to Signal the weakness in order to trap more short sellers.

I guess lesson learned
do not predict and do not play the psyche (mental game)

can you please critique my case study? HT

making price level prediction based on historical chart movement range is the wrong thing to do in trading.

overconfident definitely is wrong, that I know

play the psyche (mental game) is wrong when it comes to trading.

when you say "plan around it" do you still play the mental game? or it is better to have no thoughts no predictions

6 nov. 2020

Note

Do not allow your last night predicted price level outcome affect your emotions positively or negatively because your next thought about price level prediction could be very wrong. (if you're not humble the market will humble you)

That's why shay said do have plan around it ahead of time, don't predict (or plan ) during the live market hours.



and don't let the plan that you set ahead of time affect your emotions either positively or negatively

* Predictions and your thoughts are not as reliable or consistent as the present set up of the chart.
(I guess that's what shay was trying to tell me)
trading is definitely not an exact science, so hard to even put into words lol...

summary

don't plan or predict during market hours, only trade the present set-up during market hours.
having a prior plan around it does preserve your mental capital and emotional capital during market hours,

but don't allow your plan or predicted price level affect your emotions, use your plan as a guideline, but mainly focus on present setups during the market hours

during the market hours, you can NOT plan or predict what the stock is going to do,
You can only trade your plan that you made last night or adapt the present setup during the market hours.

and if your plan is already way out of line from what the present stock is doing. then DO NOT TRADE.

if you're not humble the market will humble you