From Tulip Mania to Social media Mania..!

14 juil. 2023

Bubble investors often believe the hype and hot stories about future growth but ignore the valuation of the assets and ultimately overestimate their expected returns. Asset valuations and not hype determine investment returns regardless of economic development.

For example, there were many stories during the Technology Bubble regarding new technologies changing the economy. Many of those stories came true during the decade after the bubble, but the Technology sector was the worst performing S&P 500® sector
and provided negative absolute returns during the decade.
A bubble in financial markets is a period of rapid price increases in an asset, such as stocks, bonds, or real estate, that is not justified by the asset's underlying fundamentals. Bubbles typically go through five stages:

Displacement: This is the stage where investors become enamored with a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or interest rates that are historically low. This leads to a surge in demand for the asset, which drives up prices.
Boom: Prices rise rapidly in this stage, as more and more investors pile into the market, hoping to make a quick profit. This is often accompanied by a frenzy of speculation, as investors buy assets without even considering the underlying fundamentals.
Euphoria: In this stage, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Investors are convinced that the bubble will never burst, and they are willing to pay any price for the asset.
Profit-taking: As the bubble nears its peak, some investors start to take profits. This selling pressure can lead to a slowdown in the rate of price appreciation, or even a small decline in prices.
Panic: This is the stage where the bubble bursts. Prices plummet as investors rush to sell the asset. This can lead to a severe market crash, with widespread losses for investors.
The stages of a bubble are not always clear-cut, and they can vary depending on the specific asset and the market conditions. However, understanding the five stages can help investors identify bubbles early on and avoid getting caught up in the frenzy.

Here are some of the warning signs that a bubble may be forming:

Prices are rising rapidly, far outpacing the underlying fundamentals of the asset.
There is a lot of media attention and hype surrounding the asset.
New investors are entering the market, even though they have little or no experience with the asset.
Borrowing to invest in the asset becomes common.
There is a widespread belief that the bubble will never burst.
If you see any of these warning signs, it is important to be cautious and avoid investing in the asset. Bubbles can be very destructive, and they can lead to significant losses for investors.