AUD/JPY Outlook Hinges on Break of 2024 Opening Range

AUD/JPY consolidates after failing to retrace the decline from the December high (98.07), but a break of the 2024 opening range may affect the near-term outlook for the exchange rate.

AUD/JPY Rate Outlook

AUD/JPY trades to a fresh weekly low (96.15) as it struggles to hold above the 50-Day SMA (96.80), and the exchange rate may give back the advance from the start of the month as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.

Failure to hold above the 96.10 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 96.20 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the monthly low (95.84), with the next area of interest coming in around 93.90 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 94.50 (23.6% Fibonacci extension).

However, AUD/JPY may try to track the positive slope in the moving average if it holds above the 96.10 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 96.20 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region, with a breach above the monthly high (97.40) raising the scope for another run at 97.60 (50% Fibonacci extension).