AUD/USD's Potential Bearish Flag Breakdown

Chart Analysis:

The AUD/USD pair is trading within a short-term rising channel, providing a near-term bullish framework amid a broader bearish trend.

1️⃣ Rising Channel:

The pair remains within the bounds of a green-shaded rising channel, suggesting upward momentum persists in the short term.
A break below the channel’s lower boundary near 0.6240 could signal a return to bearish dominance, while a move above 0.6300 would strengthen bullish prospects.

2️⃣ Moving Averages:

50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 0.6327, acting as the next key resistance level above the rising channel.
200-day SMA (red): At 0.6578, remains well above the current price, reflecting the pair’s long-term bearish bias.

3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:

RSI: At 47.66, indicating neutral momentum and the potential for either continuation or reversal within the channel.
MACD: Near zero but improving, suggesting waning bearish momentum.
What to Watch:

A sustained break above 0.6300 and the 50-day SMA would open the door for further gains.

Alternatively, failure to hold the rising channel support at 0.6240 could lead to renewed selling pressure, targeting the 0.6200 psychological level and below.

The AUD/USD pair’s near-term direction hinges on its ability to maintain the rising channel structure while contending with the overhead 50-day SMA resistance.

-MW