0.59 likely thin!
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, demand at 0.6358/0.6839 and 0.6094/0.5866 recently yielded, scoring seventeen-year lows at 0.5506.
Recent movement, therefore, exposes the possibility of another layer of demand at 0.5219/0.5426 entering the fray. Further downside is also in line with the primary downtrend, lower since 2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Price action whipsawed through supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798 and tested a well-grounded support level at 0.5563 in recent trade. Shaped in the form of a near-full-bodied bullish candle, AUD/USD upside unfolded Tuesday, closing in on a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, which contained downside (as demand) in October 2008.
Wednesday responded in the form of a half-hearted shooting star candlestick configuration – considered a bearish signal at peaks. Generally, shooting star patterns close at lows and display more of a candle body.
With reference to the RSI indicator, we trade off unparalleled oversold levels, with the value seen bottoming off 10.00, currently attempting to nudge above 30.00.
H4 timeframe:
The Australian dollar found itself under modest pressure heading into London on Wednesday, after topping a few points south of supply seen at 0.6147/0.6078, garnished with Fibonacci studies around the 0.61ish region.
Downside recently eclipsed local trendline support, formed from decade lows at 0.5506. This signals a move towards 0.5690 could unfold, stationed within the walls of daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers are seen taking a back seat in early trade Thursday, eyeing a test of 0.59, which merges closely with a 100-period SMA. Beyond 0.59, 0.58 also represents relatively strong support, owing to demand confluence at 0.5775/0.5812 along with a 50.0% retracement merge at 0.5788.
Technical indicators also show the RSI heading for oversold territory.
Structures of Interest:
The fact we produced a daily bearish candlestick signal out of a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, along with H4 movement seen tunnelling through trendline support, bids are likely thin at 0.59, based on the H1 timeframe.
Therefore, assuming our chart studies are accurate, a H1 close beneath 0.59 and the 100-period SMA could be in store. This opens the floor to intraday selling towards 0.58, which not only brings with it reasonably attractive H1 confluence, it’s housed within daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
As such, 0.58 not only denotes a downside target for short positions, it puts forward a relatively strong support zone which could contain downside.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, demand at 0.6358/0.6839 and 0.6094/0.5866 recently yielded, scoring seventeen-year lows at 0.5506.
Recent movement, therefore, exposes the possibility of another layer of demand at 0.5219/0.5426 entering the fray. Further downside is also in line with the primary downtrend, lower since 2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Price action whipsawed through supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798 and tested a well-grounded support level at 0.5563 in recent trade. Shaped in the form of a near-full-bodied bullish candle, AUD/USD upside unfolded Tuesday, closing in on a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, which contained downside (as demand) in October 2008.
Wednesday responded in the form of a half-hearted shooting star candlestick configuration – considered a bearish signal at peaks. Generally, shooting star patterns close at lows and display more of a candle body.
With reference to the RSI indicator, we trade off unparalleled oversold levels, with the value seen bottoming off 10.00, currently attempting to nudge above 30.00.
H4 timeframe:
The Australian dollar found itself under modest pressure heading into London on Wednesday, after topping a few points south of supply seen at 0.6147/0.6078, garnished with Fibonacci studies around the 0.61ish region.
Downside recently eclipsed local trendline support, formed from decade lows at 0.5506. This signals a move towards 0.5690 could unfold, stationed within the walls of daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers are seen taking a back seat in early trade Thursday, eyeing a test of 0.59, which merges closely with a 100-period SMA. Beyond 0.59, 0.58 also represents relatively strong support, owing to demand confluence at 0.5775/0.5812 along with a 50.0% retracement merge at 0.5788.
Technical indicators also show the RSI heading for oversold territory.
Structures of Interest:
The fact we produced a daily bearish candlestick signal out of a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, along with H4 movement seen tunnelling through trendline support, bids are likely thin at 0.59, based on the H1 timeframe.
Therefore, assuming our chart studies are accurate, a H1 close beneath 0.59 and the 100-period SMA could be in store. This opens the floor to intraday selling towards 0.58, which not only brings with it reasonably attractive H1 confluence, it’s housed within daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
As such, 0.58 not only denotes a downside target for short positions, it puts forward a relatively strong support zone which could contain downside.
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