Little opportunity seen on the Aussie...

Weekly gain/loss: - 31 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.7543

As can be seen from the weekly chart, the bulls failed to generate much follow through after the prior week’s bounce from the support area marked at 0.7524-0.7446. Should the buyers eventually regain consciousness here, however, the next upside hurdle can be seen at a trendline resistance taken from the high 0.7835, followed closely by supply at 0.7849-0.7752.

Thursday’s bounce (and Friday’s follow through) seen from the support area at 0.7449-0.7506 (housed within the above said weekly support area) is interesting. The reason? In the event that the bulls continue to bid price into positive territory from here, an AB=CD formation may complete (black arrows), which, as seen by the AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. at 0.7645, ties in beautifully with supply at 0.7679-0.7640. For that reason, the bulls may still have a hand in this fight.

Switching gears and moving over to the H4 chart, nevertheless, our team has noted a group of potentially troublesome resistances ahead. First in line is the mid-level resistance at 0.7550, then a supply at 0.7562-0.7552, followed with an AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. at 0.7560 chiseled from the low 0.7491, and finally a 61.8% Fib resistance at 0.7565 drawn from the high 0.7610.

Our suggestions: We’re sure you’ll agree with us that going long, despite what the higher-timeframe structures suggest, would be chancy owing to the said H4 resistances. And likewise, a short, although tempting given the confluence, would be just as much of a risk. With that in mind, we’ll remain on the sidelines for the time being and reassess structure around Tuesday’s open.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 4.30 and again at 8.30pm GMT+1.