Aussie looking very overbought!

16 févr. 2017

Thanks to a recent bout of buying which managed to smash through the 0.77 handle, the commodity currency is now seen trading in a beautiful spot! From the weekly chart, the Aussie is seen touching gloves with a weekly trendline resistance taken from the high 0.8163, followed closely by a weekly supply zone logged in at 0.7849-0.7752 (bolstered by yet another weekly trendline resistance stretched from the high 0.7835). Additionally, we can also see that the weekly trendline resistance (0.8163) is positioned nearby a daily Quasimodo resistance penciled in at 0.7734 and a daily resistance at 0.7720.

Our suggestions: The 0.7752/0.7720 higher-timeframe zone, coupled with a nice-looking H4 AB=CD (black arrows) 161.8% approach at 0.7728, is likely sufficient enough to bounce price. However, with Aussie employment data just around the corner, one may want to wait for a H4 bear candle to print before looking to pull the trigger. The next downside target from this angle is 0.77.

Data points to consider: Aussie employment data at 12.30am. US housing data, US jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index all scheduled for release at 1.30pm GMT.