Each timeframe suggests sellers have the upper hand
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Demand at 0.6358/0.6839 remains in the fight, yet price struggles to pencil in anything of note to the upside, currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle. An eventual break of the said demand zone has another layer of demand close by at 0.6094/0.5866, while a recovery could eventually lead to trendline support-turned resistance (0.4776) making an appearance, followed by supply at 0.8303/0.8082.
The primary trend in this market continues to face a southerly trajectory.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from recent analysis -
0.6680ish (red oval) welcomed price action on Monday, as did long-term demand drawn from late 2008 at 0.6330/0.6245 (note this demand contained the mild break of monthly demand above at 0.6358/0.6839). Proven supply also resides at 0.6778/0.6731, aligning with trendline resistance (0.7393).
Tuesday observed a reasonably decisive move lower, wrapping up a touch off session lows at 0.6462. Technically speaking, there’s little stopping additional losses materialising on this timeframe until reaching demand underscored above at 0.6330/0.6245.
The RSI recently exited oversold territory, though has been unable to conquer 50.00 thus far.
H4 timeframe:
Recent downside had H4 price drill through demand at 0.6511/0.6542; this area was likely weakened due to Monday’s pivotal move to lows at 0.6314.
0.6511/0.6542, as of current price, holds as a resistance area, which could, given space to manoeuvre lower on the daily timeframe, head back to the 127.2% Fib ext. point at 0.6351.
H1 timeframe:
Technical development on H1 charts saw the unit leap through 0.65, likely tripping sell-stop liquidity, and bottom a few points north of 0.6457ish, a combination of a 61.8% Fib retracement and a 161.8% Fib ext. point. 0.65 welcomed price in recent hours, with a break north of here potentially setting the stage for an approach to 0.6550. Beyond here, consumed supply is visible to the left of price, perhaps paving the way to 0.66 or the 100-period SMA.
With reference to the RSI, the value recently bottomed within oversold territory, and is currently circulating around 40.00.
Structures of Interest:
Indecisive action present on the weekly timeframe within the lower boundary of demand casts a cloud over long-term buying. This is further emphasised on the daily timeframe, showing room to press as far south as demand from 0.6330/0.6245, as well as the H4 candles testing the underside of a recently broken demand at 0.6511/0.6542.
H1 price holding at 0.65, therefore, could be of interest for sellers, though a break of 0.6457 likely the more appealing approach for breakout short sales.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Demand at 0.6358/0.6839 remains in the fight, yet price struggles to pencil in anything of note to the upside, currently trading in the shape of a doji indecision candle. An eventual break of the said demand zone has another layer of demand close by at 0.6094/0.5866, while a recovery could eventually lead to trendline support-turned resistance (0.4776) making an appearance, followed by supply at 0.8303/0.8082.
The primary trend in this market continues to face a southerly trajectory.
Daily timeframe:
Outlook partially altered from recent analysis -
0.6680ish (red oval) welcomed price action on Monday, as did long-term demand drawn from late 2008 at 0.6330/0.6245 (note this demand contained the mild break of monthly demand above at 0.6358/0.6839). Proven supply also resides at 0.6778/0.6731, aligning with trendline resistance (0.7393).
Tuesday observed a reasonably decisive move lower, wrapping up a touch off session lows at 0.6462. Technically speaking, there’s little stopping additional losses materialising on this timeframe until reaching demand underscored above at 0.6330/0.6245.
The RSI recently exited oversold territory, though has been unable to conquer 50.00 thus far.
H4 timeframe:
Recent downside had H4 price drill through demand at 0.6511/0.6542; this area was likely weakened due to Monday’s pivotal move to lows at 0.6314.
0.6511/0.6542, as of current price, holds as a resistance area, which could, given space to manoeuvre lower on the daily timeframe, head back to the 127.2% Fib ext. point at 0.6351.
H1 timeframe:
Technical development on H1 charts saw the unit leap through 0.65, likely tripping sell-stop liquidity, and bottom a few points north of 0.6457ish, a combination of a 61.8% Fib retracement and a 161.8% Fib ext. point. 0.65 welcomed price in recent hours, with a break north of here potentially setting the stage for an approach to 0.6550. Beyond here, consumed supply is visible to the left of price, perhaps paving the way to 0.66 or the 100-period SMA.
With reference to the RSI, the value recently bottomed within oversold territory, and is currently circulating around 40.00.
Structures of Interest:
Indecisive action present on the weekly timeframe within the lower boundary of demand casts a cloud over long-term buying. This is further emphasised on the daily timeframe, showing room to press as far south as demand from 0.6330/0.6245, as well as the H4 candles testing the underside of a recently broken demand at 0.6511/0.6542.
H1 price holding at 0.65, therefore, could be of interest for sellers, though a break of 0.6457 likely the more appealing approach for breakout short sales.
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