Study of BTC/USD Market Cycles using BraveNewCoin Liquid Index
Study of BTC/USD Market Cycles using BraveNewCoin Liquid Index
Weekly candles used so exact days are approximated by chart.
Using logarithmic scale 3 major Bitcoin market cycles can be analyzed.
Bull markets defined by periods of significant upward price action, bear markets defined by significant retracement of price.
Market Cycle 1
Bull Market 1: Aug 30 2010 - June 11 2006 (280 days)
Bear Market 1: June 11 2006 - Nov 11 2014 (161 days)
Market Cycle 2
Bull Market 2: Nov 14 2011 - Nov 25 2013 (742 days)
Bear Market 2: Nov 25 2013 - Jan 15 2014 (413 days)
Market Cycle 3
Bull Market 3: Jan 15 2015 - Dec 17 2017 (1064 days)
Bear Market 3: Dec 17 2017 - ongoing (427 days at time of this analysis)
Ratio of Bear to Bull Market in each Market Cycle
Market Cycle 1: 160/280=0.571428571
Market Cycle 2: 413/742=0.556603774
Average Cycle Ratio: 0.564016173
Using average market cycle ratio, potential end of bear market 3 can be forecast on August 5, 2019 (1064 x .564016173 = 600 days from Dec. 17, 2017)
Fibonacci Retracement of each market cycle (approximate)
Market Cycle 1: .93585 Retracement
Market Cycle 2: .862 Retracement
Average Cycle Retracement: 0.898925 Retracement
Applying above retracements to Market Cycle 3 + swing low/swing high of entire chart, the following zones between Fibonacci Retracement levels could serve as potential market bottom.
.862 Retracement Zone: $2761.90 - $2868.77
.89825 Retracement Zone: $2022.90 - $2145.02
.93585 Retracement Zone: $1283.89 - $1421.26
Weekly candles used so exact days are approximated by chart.
Using logarithmic scale 3 major Bitcoin market cycles can be analyzed.
Bull markets defined by periods of significant upward price action, bear markets defined by significant retracement of price.
Market Cycle 1
Bull Market 1: Aug 30 2010 - June 11 2006 (280 days)
Bear Market 1: June 11 2006 - Nov 11 2014 (161 days)
Market Cycle 2
Bull Market 2: Nov 14 2011 - Nov 25 2013 (742 days)
Bear Market 2: Nov 25 2013 - Jan 15 2014 (413 days)
Market Cycle 3
Bull Market 3: Jan 15 2015 - Dec 17 2017 (1064 days)
Bear Market 3: Dec 17 2017 - ongoing (427 days at time of this analysis)
Ratio of Bear to Bull Market in each Market Cycle
Market Cycle 1: 160/280=0.571428571
Market Cycle 2: 413/742=0.556603774
Average Cycle Ratio: 0.564016173
Using average market cycle ratio, potential end of bear market 3 can be forecast on August 5, 2019 (1064 x .564016173 = 600 days from Dec. 17, 2017)
Fibonacci Retracement of each market cycle (approximate)
Market Cycle 1: .93585 Retracement
Market Cycle 2: .862 Retracement
Average Cycle Retracement: 0.898925 Retracement
Applying above retracements to Market Cycle 3 + swing low/swing high of entire chart, the following zones between Fibonacci Retracement levels could serve as potential market bottom.
.862 Retracement Zone: $2761.90 - $2868.77
.89825 Retracement Zone: $2022.90 - $2145.02
.93585 Retracement Zone: $1283.89 - $1421.26